MS
Morgan Stanley
MS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
TRV has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
TRV Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TRV's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TRV.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
TRV PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $407 | +0.9% |
| Current | 11x | $403 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $505 | +25% |
| Forward | 13x | $403 | — |
| Expensive | 16x | $603 | +50% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TRV has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over TRV on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
TRV Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect TRV's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
TRV Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.64 | -19% |
| Q3 2026 | $38.04 | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $37.24 | +65% |
| Q1 2026 | $33.51 | +82% |
| Q4 2025 | $27.43 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.43 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.61 | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $18.37 | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.47 | +68% |
TRV has the edge over MS on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over TRV on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over TRV on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TRV Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.4B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.2B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.9B | +1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +3.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.5B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.1B | +7.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.8B | +5.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $12B | +9.9% |
TRV's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $12.4B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 23% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | 25% | +3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +5.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +9.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4% | -8.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | +3.1 points |
TRV's operating margin was 19% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TRV Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.9B | -8.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | -18% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | +62% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.2B | +9.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.3B | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | -1.9% |
TRV has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
TRV Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -7.4% | -16.9M shares |
| 3 years | -8.9% | -20.5M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -39.5M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -51.7M shares |
TRV has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B |
| Q3 2025 | $619M |
| Q2 2025 | $500M |
| Q1 2025 | $250M |
| Q4 2024 | $256M |
TRV spent $6.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, about four times what it spent the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TRV Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
TRV has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
TRV Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 73.3 | Neutral |
TRV's weekly RSI is 70 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
TRV PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TRV | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 19% below |
| PE % | 15 | 63 | 48 pts below |
TRV has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
TRV Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $384.3 | 4.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $374.7 | 7.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $327.7 | 23% above |
| 100 week MA | $295.1 | 37% above |
| 200 week MA | $247.2 | 63% above |
TRV has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
TRV Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $136.8 | $138.5 | +1.2% |
| 2021 | $138.5 | $154.7 | +12% |
| 2022 | $154.7 | $189.5 | +23% |
| 2023 | $189.5 | $190.5 | +0.5% |
| 2024 | $190.5 | $241.4 | +27% |
| 2025 | $241.4 | $292.1 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $292.1 | $403.2 | +38% |
TRV has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.