MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TMP
Tompkins Financial Corporation
TMP has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
TMP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TMP's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TMP.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
TMP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 8x | $100 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $133 | +33% |
| Forward | 12x | $100 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $161 | +61% |
| Expensive | 17x | $210 | +109% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TMP has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over TMP on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
TMP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect TMP's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
TMP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.23 | -35% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.58 | +113% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.23 | +120% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.69 | +127% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.24 | +126% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.91 | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.56 | +456% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.16 | +953% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.97 | +653% |
TMP has the edge over MS on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over TMP on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TMP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $89.9M | +2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $87.1M | +5.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $83.7M | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $194.8M | +153% |
| Q3 2025 | $87.4M | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $82.6M | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $81.7M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $77.1M | +8.3% |
TMP's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $90M last quarter, up 2.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 42% | +6.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 44% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +9.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 72% | +38 points |
| Q3 2025 | 36% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 34% | +5.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 32% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 33% | +7.9 points |
TMP has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TMP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $36.9M | +8.8% |
| Q2 2026 | -$17.1M | -194% |
| Q1 2026 | $71.1M | +241% |
| Q4 2025 | -$41.1M | -290% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.9M | +79% |
| Q2 2025 | $18.3M | -31% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.9M | -4.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.7M | +24% |
TMP has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over TMP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
TMP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +12.5K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | +631 shares |
| 3 years | +0.9% | +121K shares |
| 5 years | -1.5% | -222K shares |
| Available history | -4.2% | -628K shares |
TMP has 14M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $964,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $23,000 |
| Q3 2023 | $2.3M |
| Q2 2023 | $6.4M |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TMP Net Leverage
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
TMP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 51.4 | Neutral |
TMP's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 51 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
TMP PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TMP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8x | 13x | 39% below |
| PE % | 7 | 63 | 56 pts below |
TMP has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
TMP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $99.0 | 1.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $98.3 | 1.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $87.7 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $76.4 | 31% above |
| 200 week MA | $66.9 | 50% above |
TMP has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
TMP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.3 | $70.0 | -22% |
| 2021 | $70.0 | $82.4 | +18% |
| 2022 | $82.4 | $77.4 | -6.1% |
| 2023 | $77.4 | $60.2 | -22% |
| 2024 | $60.2 | $68.0 | +13% |
| 2025 | $68.0 | $74.1 | +9% |
| 2026 YTD | $74.1 | $100.1 | +35% |
TMP has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.