MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over THG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
THG
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
THG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
THG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
THG's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like THG.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
THG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 10x | $219 | -12% |
| Current | 12x | $248 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $273 | +9.9% |
| Forward | 13x | $248 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $360 | +45% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
THG has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over THG on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
THG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect THG's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
THG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $19.65 | -6% |
| Q3 2026 | $20.90 | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.94 | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.86 | +65% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.16 | +55% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.30 | +71% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.20 | +101% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.02 | +167% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.70 | +1094% |
THG has the edge over MS on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over THG on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over THG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
THG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.7B | +6.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.7B | +5.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | +6.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.7B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | +3.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | +3.6% |
THG's revenue has grown year over year for 17 quarters in a row: $1.7B last quarter, up 4.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 15% | +1.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | +3.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | +1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +5.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +6.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +5.7 points |
THG's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 0.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
THG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $518M | -6.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $209.4M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $115.3M | +211% |
| Q4 2025 | $377M | +79% |
| Q3 2025 | $551.4M | +41% |
| Q2 2025 | $204.9M | +49% |
| Q1 2025 | $37.1M | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $210.5M | +133% |
THG has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
THG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | -2.5% | -900K shares |
| 3 years | -1.7% | -600K shares |
| 5 years | -2.2% | -800K shares |
| Available history | -13% | -5.1M shares |
THG has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $55M |
| Q1 2026 | $86.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $54.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $36M |
| Q2 2025 | $27.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $11M |
| Q3 2023 | — |
THG spent $283M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
THG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
THG has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
THG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 73.1 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 82.0 | Overbought |
THG's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 82 (overbought).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
THG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | THG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 8.8% below |
| PE % | 36 | 63 | 27 pts below |
THG has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
THG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $232.5 | 6.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $227.3 | 9.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $200.1 | 24% above |
| 100 week MA | $184.1 | 35% above |
| 200 week MA | $156.4 | 59% above |
THG has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
THG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $136.4 | $116.1 | -15% |
| 2021 | $116.1 | $127.7 | +10% |
| 2022 | $127.7 | $137.4 | +7.6% |
| 2023 | $137.4 | $121.4 | -12% |
| 2024 | $121.4 | $154.3 | +27% |
| 2025 | $154.3 | $184.2 | +19% |
| 2026 YTD | $184.2 | $248.0 | +35% |
THG has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.