MS
Morgan Stanley
MS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TFSL
TFS Financial Corporation
TFSL has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
TFSL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TFSL's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TFSL.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
TFSL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 43x | $16.38 | — |
| Cheap | 45x | $16.07 | -1.9% |
| Current | 46x | $16.38 | — |
| Fair | 50x | $18.02 | +10% |
| Expensive | 63x | $22.77 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TFSL has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
TFSL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TFSL, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
TFSL Earnings Per Share
TFSL and MS do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over TFSL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TFSL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $89.3M | +8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $85.2M | +7.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $83.7M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $85.5M | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $82M | +8.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $79.1M | +2.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $74.8M | -0.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $75.1M | -0.4% |
TFSL's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $89M last quarter, up 8.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 43% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 35% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 34% | -3.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 38% | +7.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 34% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 38% | +3.3 points |
| Q3 2024 | 31% | -0.4 points |
TFSL has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TFSL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $29M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.4M | -6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $57.1M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | -$13.2M | +$46.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $25M | -74% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.3M | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $44.9M | +26% |
| Q3 2024 | -$59.4M | -565% |
TFSL has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over TFSL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
TFSL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +242K shares |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +303K shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +1.6M shares |
| 5 years | +0.4% | +1.2M shares |
| Available history | +1% | +2.8M shares |
TFSL has 280M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $3M |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $744,000 |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $767,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $1,000 |
TFSL spent $9M buying back its own shares over the past year, about six times what it spent the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS has the edge over TFSL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TFSL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 33.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 33.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 32.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 32.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 34.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 33.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 34.3x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 36.3x | High |
TFSL's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from more than 20 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like TFSL.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
TFSL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.3 | Oversold |
TFSL's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over TFSL on valuation relative to its sector.
TFSL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TFSL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 13x | 249% above |
| PE % | 24 | 63 | 39 pts below |
TFSL is trading at 46x earnings, a 249% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
TFSL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $16.5 | 0.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $17.2 | 4.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.7 | 4.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $14.4 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $13.8 | 19% above |
TFSL has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 19% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
TFSL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.6 | $17.7 | -9.8% |
| 2021 | $17.7 | $17.7 | +0.2% |
| 2022 | $17.7 | $14.2 | -20% |
| 2023 | $14.2 | $14.7 | +3.7% |
| 2024 | $14.7 | $12.6 | -14% |
| 2025 | $12.6 | $14.0 | +11% |
| 2026 YTD | $14.0 | $16.4 | +17% |
TFSL has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.