MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over TFIN overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
TFIN
Triumph Financial, Inc.
TFIN offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
TFIN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TFIN's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TFIN.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over TFIN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TFIN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $30.11 | -49% |
| Forward | 18x | $59.05 | — |
| Fair | 24x | $47.63 | -19% |
| Current | 30x | $59.05 | — |
| Expensive | 57x | $112 | +89% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TFIN's PE is in its fair range at 30x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
TFIN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TFIN, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
TFIN has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 29% for MS versus TFIN up 148%.
TFIN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.22 | +64% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.54 | -66% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.79 | -58% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.11 | -45% |
| Q1 2024 | $1.32 | -62% |
| Q4 2023 | $1.61 | -59% |
| Q3 2023 | $1.90 | -56% |
| Q2 2023 | $2.01 | -56% |
| Q1 2023 | $3.46 | -13% |
TFIN's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.96 over the past year, against $4.62 in mid-2022.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over TFIN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over TFIN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TFIN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $125.7M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $120.2M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $105.8M | +4.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $120.1M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $109.3M | +2.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $108.1M | +2.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $101.6M | +0.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $103.6M | -2.4% |
TFIN's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $126M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +14 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +5.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.7% | +7.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +14 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.3% | +3.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1% | -4.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.6% | -6.4 points |
TFIN's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 14 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TFIN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $21.3M | -5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.3M | +$6.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $36.5M | -1.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.4M | +5.8% |
| Q1 2025 | -$3M | +$13M |
| Q4 2024 | $37M | +46% |
| Q3 2024 | $21.2M | +136% |
| Q2 2024 | $16.3M | +106% |
TFIN has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over TFIN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
TFIN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -3.1K shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +221K shares |
| 3 years | +2.9% | +686K shares |
| 5 years | -4.3% | -1.1M shares |
| Available history | -7.3% | -1.9M shares |
TFIN has 24M diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $92,000 |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $128,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $1,000 |
TFIN spent $2M buying back its own shares over the past year, about the same as the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TFIN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -10.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -11.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -7.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 4.8x | High |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -5.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.8x | Net Cash |
TFIN has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
TFIN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.4 | Oversold |
TFIN's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over TFIN on valuation relative to its sector.
TFIN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TFIN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 13x | 131% above |
| PE % | 58 | 63 | 5 pts below |
TFIN is trading at 30x earnings, a 131% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over TFIN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
TFIN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $61.7 | 4.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $69.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $66.5 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $64.2 | 8% below |
| 200 week MA | $68.0 | 13% below |
TFIN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 13% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over TFIN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TFIN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.4 | $48.3 | +26% |
| 2021 | $48.3 | $113.1 | +134% |
| 2022 | $113.1 | $49.4 | -56% |
| 2023 | $49.4 | $80.2 | +62% |
| 2024 | $80.2 | $90.9 | +13% |
| 2025 | $90.9 | $64.0 | -30% |
| 2026 YTD | $64.0 | $59.1 | -7.8% |
TFIN's yearly returns have swung widely, from +134% in 2021 to −56% in 2022. It's down 7.8% so far in 2026.