MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over TCBX overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.
TCBX offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
TCBX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TCBX's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TCBX.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
TCBX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.7x | $39.68 | — |
| Cheap | 9.9x | $38.58 | -2.8% |
| Current | 10x | $39.68 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $41.75 | +5.2% |
| Expensive | 12x | $47.55 | +20% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TCBX has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over TCBX on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
TCBX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TCBX, but weaker profitability.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over TCBX on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
TCBX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.09 | +4.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.91 | +9.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.01 | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.89 | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.79 | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.57 | +39% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.28 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.95 | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.78 | +40% |
TCBX's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.91 over the past year, up 9.5% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2023.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TCBX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $65.9M | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $68M | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $57.7M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $56.5M | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $54.5M | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $52M | +25% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.9M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $46.3M | +17% |
TCBX has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 36% | -5.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | 0 points |
| Q1 2026 | 33% | -4.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 38% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 42% | +4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 40% | +6.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 38% | +5.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 39% | +8.4 points |
TCBX has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TCBX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.9M | -57% |
| Q2 2026 | $45M | +224% |
| Q1 2026 | -$38.7M | -469% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.7M | -5.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.9M | +90% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.5M | +11% |
| Q3 2024 | $22M | +1077% |
| Q2 2024 | $7.3M | -22% |
TCBX has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over TCBX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
TCBX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +101K shares |
| 1 year | +18% | +3M shares |
| 3 years | +21% | +3.6M shares |
TCBX has 20M diluted shares, up 18% from a year ago.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
TCBX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
TCBX has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
TCBX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.5 | Oversold |
TCBX's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
TCBX PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TCBX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 22% below |
| PE % | 26 | 64 | 38 pts below |
TCBX has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over TCBX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
TCBX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $40.9 | 3.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $42.6 | 6.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $40.6 | 2.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $37.7 | 5.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $29.1 | 36% above |
TCBX has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 36% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over TCBX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TCBX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $25.1 | $25.9 | +3.3% |
| 2022 | $25.9 | $18.5 | -28% |
| 2023 | $18.5 | $19.9 | +7.2% |
| 2024 | $19.9 | $34.1 | +72% |
| 2025 | $34.1 | $39.4 | +15% |
| 2026 YTD | $39.4 | $39.7 | +0.7% |
TCBX has finished higher in four of the last five years. It's up 0.7% so far in 2026.