MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over SMBC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
SMBC
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.
SMBC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
SMBC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SMBC's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SMBC.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
SMBC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.1x | $61.53 | -13% |
| Current | 10x | $70.94 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $71.38 | +0.6% |
| Forward | 11x | $70.94 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $81.29 | +15% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SMBC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over SMBC on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
SMBC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect SMBC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over SMBC on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
SMBC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.69 | -1.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.78 | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.43 | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.99 | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.78 | +26% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.46 | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.18 | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.98 | +8.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.58 | +20% |
SMBC's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $6.78 over the past year, up 24% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over SMBC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SMBC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $53.1M | +8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $51.8M | +8.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $50.2M | +8.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $49.6M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $49M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $47.6M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $46.1M | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $45M | +12% |
SMBC's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $53M last quarter, up 8.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | +4.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 44% | +4.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 44% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 46% | +3.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +3.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 43% | +7.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +4.4 points |
SMBC has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SMBC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.6M | +27% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.5M | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.5M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.2M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $15.4M | +80% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.8M | +94% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.7M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $18.2M | +17% |
SMBC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
SMBC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.1% | -119K shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -260K shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -286K shares |
| 5 years | +24% | +2.1M shares |
| Available history | +20% | +1.8M shares |
SMBC has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | — |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SMBC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 10.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 8.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
SMBC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
SMBC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.8 | Neutral |
SMBC's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 22 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
SMBC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SMBC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 20% below |
| PE % | 47 | 63 | 16 pts below |
SMBC has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
SMBC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $71.1 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $73.7 | 3.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $68.5 | 3.6% above |
| 100 week MA | $61.5 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $53.8 | 32% above |
SMBC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 32% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
SMBC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.2 | $31.3 | -18% |
| 2021 | $31.3 | $50.4 | +61% |
| 2022 | $50.4 | $46.0 | -8.8% |
| 2023 | $46.0 | $53.4 | +16% |
| 2024 | $53.4 | $57.8 | +8.3% |
| 2025 | $57.8 | $60.4 | +4.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.4 | $70.9 | +18% |
SMBC has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.