MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over SKWD overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
SKWD offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
SKWD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SKWD's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SKWD.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
SKWD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 12x | $62.67 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $56.39 | -10% |
| Fair | 15x | $63.66 | +1.6% |
| Current | 15x | $62.67 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $78.45 | +25% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SKWD has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over SKWD on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
SKWD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SKWD, with profitability holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over SKWD on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
SKWD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.32 | +24% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.28 | +27% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.29 | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.15 | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.07 | +42% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.37 | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.16 | +6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.98 | +9.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.87 | +28% |
SKWD's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $4.28 over the past year, up 27% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2021.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over SKWD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SKWD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $455.3M | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $489.5M | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $475.9M | +45% |
| Q4 2025 | $385.6M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $382.5M | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $319.9M | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $328.5M | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $304.4M | +24% |
SKWD has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -1.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | -2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.1% | -9.2 points |
SKWD's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 1.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
SKWD has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 76% versus its history, compared with MS at down 492%.
SKWD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $50.1M | +140% |
| Q3 2025 | $168.9M | +0.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $87.1M | +372% |
| Q1 2025 | $96.6M | +2.7% |
| Q3 2024 | $167.6M | +52% |
| Q2 2024 | $18.4M | +2589% |
| Q1 2024 | $94M | -12% |
| Q3 2023 | $110.1M | +82% |
SKWD's free cash flow was $403M over the past year, up 34% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SKWD.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over SKWD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
SKWD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +107K shares |
| 1 year | +9.4% | +3.9M shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +7.4M shares |
| 5 years | +26% | +9.5M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +8.2M shares |
SKWD has 46M diluted shares, up 9.4% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $125,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $10.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $8.7M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SKWD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2022 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2022 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2022 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2021 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2021 | 0.7x | Very low |
SKWD's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.6 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SKWD.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
SKWD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 64.5 | Neutral |
SKWD's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 64 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
SKWD PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SKWD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 12% above |
| PE % | 43 | 53 | 10 pts below |
SKWD has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
SKWD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $59.0 | 6.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $59.1 | 6.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $51.8 | 21% above |
| 100 week MA | $51.4 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $41.7 | 50% above |
SKWD has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
SKWD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $19.1 | $33.9 | +77% |
| 2024 | $33.9 | $50.8 | +50% |
| 2025 | $50.8 | $51.9 | +2.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $51.9 | $62.7 | +21% |
SKWD has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.