MS
Morgan Stanley
MS offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group, Inc.
SIGI has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
SIGI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SIGI's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SIGI.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
SIGI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $98.60 | -4.6% |
| Current | 12x | $103 | — |
| Forward | 12x | $103 | — |
| Fair | 17x | $140 | +36% |
| Expensive | 24x | $202 | +95% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SIGI has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over SIGI on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
SIGI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect SIGI's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
SIGI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.96 | +7.7% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.32 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.06 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.31 | +99% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.49 | +132% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.50 | +75% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.12 | +67% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.68 | -35% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.23 | -45% |
SIGI earned $8.32 per share over the past year, up 28% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over SIGI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over SIGI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SIGI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | -2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +4.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +8.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +9.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +13% |
SIGI's revenue has held roughly level: $1.3B last quarter, down 2.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +3.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.1% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +4.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.2% | +15 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.5% | -4.7 points |
SIGI's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 1.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SIGI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $347M | -13% |
| Q2 2026 | $214.9M | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $210.5M | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $366.3M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $397.3M | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $159.7M | -38% |
| Q1 2025 | $271M | +151% |
| Q4 2024 | $324.7M | +42% |
SIGI has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
SIGI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -329K shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -1.2M shares |
| 3 years | -1.9% | -1.2M shares |
| 5 years | -0.4% | -271K shares |
| Available history | -0.3% | -151K shares |
SIGI has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $55.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $32.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $35M |
| Q4 2025 | $30.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $36.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $258,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $25.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $81,000 |
SIGI spent $153M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 147% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SIGI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
SIGI has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
SIGI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 83.0 | Overbought |
SIGI's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
SIGI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SIGI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 4.6% below |
| PE % | 23 | 63 | 40 pts below |
SIGI has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
SIGI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $92.9 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $93.5 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $87.8 | 18% above |
| 100 week MA | $86.1 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $92.1 | 12% above |
SIGI has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
SIGI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $64.8 | $66.9 | +3.2% |
| 2021 | $66.9 | $79.6 | +19% |
| 2022 | $79.6 | $90.9 | +14% |
| 2023 | $90.9 | $99.5 | +9.5% |
| 2024 | $99.5 | $93.8 | -5.7% |
| 2025 | $93.8 | $84.0 | -10% |
| 2026 YTD | $84.0 | $103.4 | +23% |
SIGI has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.