MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over SFNC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
SFNC
Simmons First National Corporation
SFNC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
SFNC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Unavailable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SFNC's profitability is currently healthy. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SFNC.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
SFNC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.4x | $13.58 | -42% |
| Forward | 10x | $23.39 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $18.91 | -19% |
| Current | 15x | $23.39 | — |
| Expensive | 16x | $25.35 | +8.4% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SFNC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over SFNC on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
SFNC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect SFNC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
SFNC has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 29% for MS versus SFNC up 58%.
SFNC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.27 | +41% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.27 | +6.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.16 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.21 | -12% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.02 | -44% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.19 | -43% |
| Q1 2024 | $1.33 | -28% |
| Q4 2023 | $1.38 | -33% |
| Q3 2023 | $1.83 | 0% |
SFNC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.61 over the past year, against $2.58 in early 2020.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
SFNC has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 12% for MS versus up 17% for SFNC.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SFNC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $248.6M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $241.4M | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $249M | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $214.2M | +8.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $209.6M | +7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $208.5M | +17% |
| Q3 2024 | $174.8M | -11% |
| Q2 2024 | $197.2M | -5.3% |
SFNC's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $251M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
SFNC has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 4.5% versus its history, compared with MS at down 492%.
SFNC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $125.5M | +89% |
| Q1 2026 | $34M | +50% |
| Q4 2025 | $105.7M | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $66.3M | -8.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.6M | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $72.3M | -83% |
| Q3 2024 | $187.7M | +$234M |
| Q2 2024 | $72.7M | +40% |
SFNC's free cash flow was $324M over the past year, down 7.2% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SFNC.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over SFNC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
SFNC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -270K shares |
| 1 year | +15% | +18.6M shares |
| 3 years | +14% | +17.7M shares |
| 5 years | +33% | +36.2M shares |
| Available history | +47% | +46.3M shares |
SFNC has 145M diluted shares, up 15% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $75,000 |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $323,000 |
| Q3 2023 | $20M |
| Q2 2023 | $20M |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SFNC Net Leverage
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
SFNC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.2 | Neutral |
SFNC's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
SFNC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SFNC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 12% above |
| PE % | 79 | 63 | 16 pts above |
SFNC has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
SFNC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $23.0 | 1.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $23.1 | 1.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $21.5 | 8.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $20.7 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $19.9 | 18% above |
SFNC has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
SFNC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $26.8 | $21.1 | -21% |
| 2021 | $21.1 | $29.3 | +39% |
| 2022 | $29.3 | $21.5 | -27% |
| 2023 | $21.5 | $19.8 | -7.7% |
| 2024 | $19.8 | $22.4 | +13% |
| 2025 | $22.4 | $19.2 | -14% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.2 | $23.4 | +22% |
SFNC has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.