MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over SF overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
SF
Stifel Financial Corp.
SF offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
SF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SF's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SF.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
SF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.8x | $56.62 | -22% |
| Forward | 10x | $72.26 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $76.62 | +6% |
| Current | 13x | $72.26 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $109 | +50% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SF has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
SF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SF, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over SF on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.95 | +21% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.75 | +52% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.58 | +62% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.13 | +47% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.91 | -6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.78 | +2.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.45 | +9.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.17 | +46% |
SF earned $5.75 per share over the past year, up 52% from the year before. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over SF on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over SF on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +5.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +7.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +19% |
SF's revenue is growing: $1.4B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 22% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 22% | +17 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5% | -14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +1.5 points |
SF's operating margin was 22% last quarter, up 1.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $752.9M | +134% |
| Q2 2026 | $61.3M | -90% |
| Q1 2026 | -$390.4M | -$162.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $369M | -46% |
| Q3 2025 | $321.1M | +73% |
| Q2 2025 | $592.7M | +242% |
| Q1 2025 | -$227.8M | +$391.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $677.2M | +158% |
SF has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
SF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -1.5M shares |
| 1 year | -3% | -4.9M shares |
| 3 years | -5.7% | -9.6M shares |
| 5 years | -9.9% | -17.6M shares |
| Available history | -8.5% | -14.9M shares |
SF has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $122M |
| Q2 2026 | $172.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $96.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $37.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $31.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $83M |
| Q1 2025 | $93.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $45.6M |
SF spent $428M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 69% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
SF has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
SF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.6 | Neutral |
SF's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
SF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 13x | 3.5% below |
| PE % | 44 | 63 | 19 pts below |
SF has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over SF on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $69.4 | 4.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $75.6 | 4.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $77.1 | 6.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $73.8 | 2.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $61.6 | 17% above |
SF's trend is mixed: it's above two of its five weekly moving averages, and 17% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over SF on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.4 | $34.1 | +24% |
| 2021 | $34.1 | $46.1 | +35% |
| 2022 | $46.1 | $38.6 | -16% |
| 2023 | $38.6 | $46.1 | +19% |
| 2024 | $46.1 | $71.1 | +54% |
| 2025 | $71.1 | $85.8 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $85.8 | $72.3 | -16% |
SF has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 16% so far in 2026.