MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over SAFT overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
SAFT
Safety Insurance Group, Inc.
SAFT trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
SAFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SAFT's revenue and profitability are currently stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SAFT.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over SAFT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SAFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 10x | $47.86 | -54% |
| Fair | 16x | $76.71 | -26% |
| Current | 22x | $104 | — |
| Expensive | 24x | $116 | +11% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SAFT's PE is in its expensive range at 22x.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
SAFT Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for SAFT to show an outlook.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over SAFT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SAFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.78 | -19% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.64 | -19% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.23 | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.70 | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.90 | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.72 | +65% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.90 | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.78 | +273% |
SAFT's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.78 over the past year, against $11.71 in early 2021.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over SAFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over SAFT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SAFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $327.8M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $325.7M | +3% |
| Q1 2026 | $314.7M | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $319.3M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $326.6M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $316.3M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $301.4M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $286.7M | +11% |
SAFT's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $328M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | -5.7% | -15 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | +4.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.4% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.5% | -2.6 points |
SAFT's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 0.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SAFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $56.7M | -34% |
| Q2 2026 | $37.7M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.9M | -764% |
| Q4 2025 | $71.4M | +42% |
| Q3 2025 | $85.5M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $32.3M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.8M | +$27M |
| Q4 2024 | $50.3M | +45% |
SAFT has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over SAFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
SAFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +35.3K shares |
| 1 year | -1.3% | -185K shares |
| 3 years | -0.6% | -88.5K shares |
| 5 years | -3.2% | -486K shares |
| Available history | -4.9% | -744K shares |
SAFT has 15M diluted shares, down 1.3% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $14.6M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | $17.9M |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
SAFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
SAFT has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
SAFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 77.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 81.8 | Overbought |
SAFT's weekly RSI is 77 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 82 (overbought).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over SAFT on valuation relative to its sector.
SAFT PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SAFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 13x | 68% above |
| PE % | 68 | 63 | 5 pts above |
SAFT is trading at 22x earnings, a 68% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
SAFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.0 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $99.5 | 4.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $84.8 | 23% above |
| 100 week MA | $80.4 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $79.1 | 32% above |
SAFT has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
SAFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $92.5 | $77.8 | -16% |
| 2021 | $77.8 | $82.1 | +5.5% |
| 2022 | $82.1 | $88.8 | +8.1% |
| 2023 | $88.8 | $76.0 | -14% |
| 2024 | $76.0 | $82.0 | +7.9% |
| 2025 | $82.0 | $78.4 | -4.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $78.4 | $104.3 | +33% |
SAFT has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.