MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over RLI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
RLI
RLI Corp.
RLI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
RLI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
RLI's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like RLI.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
RLI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $51.93 | -25% |
| Current | 16x | $69.12 | — |
| Fair | 19x | $81.55 | +18% |
| Forward | 25x | $69.12 | — |
| Expensive | 31x | $134 | +94% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
RLI has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over RLI on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
RLI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RLI's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over RLI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
RLI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.73 | -36% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.30 | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.77 | +37% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.29 | +41% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.37 | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.81 | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.49 | -4.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.04 | -16% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.74 | +13% |
RLI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.30 over the past year, against $7.79 in mid-2023.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over RLI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over RLI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RLI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $477M | -6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $575.6M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $423.9M | +4% |
| Q4 2025 | $465.7M | +6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $509.3M | +8.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $499.8M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $407.7M | -8.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $439.1M | +1.3% |
RLI's revenue is growing: $477M last quarter, down 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | -9.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 37% | +5.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | +14 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | +6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | +6.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | -17 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -22 points |
RLI's operating margin was 21% last quarter, down 9.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
RLI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $192.4M | +8.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $142.4M | -18% |
| Q1 2026 | $41.8M | -59% |
| Q4 2025 | $155M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $177.8M | -19% |
| Q2 2025 | $173.4M | +25% |
| Q1 2025 | $102.5M | +47% |
| Q4 2024 | $127.6M | +4.9% |
RLI has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over RLI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
RLI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +91K shares |
| 1 year | -0.1% | -59K shares |
| 3 years | +0.1% | +121K shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +873K shares |
| Available history | +1.9% | +1.7M shares |
RLI has 92M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.3M |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
RLI Net Leverage
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
RLI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 82.5 | Overbought |
RLI's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over RLI on valuation relative to its sector.
RLI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | RLI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 13x | 23% above |
| PE % | 27 | 63 | 36 pts below |
RLI is trading at 16x earnings, a 23% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
RLI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $62.0 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $62.2 | 11% above |
| 50 week MA | $59.6 | 16% above |
| 100 week MA | $65.5 | 5.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $68.1 | 1.5% above |
RLI has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
RLI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $44.9 | $51.9 | +16% |
| 2021 | $51.9 | $54.7 | +5.4% |
| 2022 | $54.7 | $66.9 | +22% |
| 2023 | $66.9 | $66.6 | -0.4% |
| 2024 | $66.6 | $83.0 | +25% |
| 2025 | $83.0 | $64.7 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $64.7 | $69.1 | +6.8% |
RLI has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.