MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over QFIN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
QFIN
Qfin Holdings, Inc.
QFIN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
QFIN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
QFIN's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like QFIN.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
QFIN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 0.7x | $5.15 | — |
| Cheap | 2.6x | $18.64 | +262% |
| Fair | 4.6x | $32.73 | +535% |
| Expensive | 6.7x | $47.38 | +820% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
QFIN has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over QFIN on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
QFIN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect QFIN's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
QFIN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $7.06 | -6.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.96 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.70 | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.41 | +41% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.58 | +68% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.03 | +68% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.25 | +59% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.25 | +58% |
QFIN earned $7.06 per share over the past year, down 6.9% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over QFIN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
QFIN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $533.7M | -18% |
| Q1 2026 | $586.7M | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $511.6M | -24% |
| Q3 2025 | $781.2M | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $649.6M | +4.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $609.2M | -2.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $672.7M | -0.3% |
| Q3 2024 | $655.8M | +2.1% |
QFIN's revenue is shrinking: $534M last quarter, down 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 32% | -18 points |
| Q1 2026 | 28% | -26 points |
| Q4 2025 | 34% | -8.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | -20 points |
| Q2 2025 | 50% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 55% | +22 points |
| Q4 2024 | 42% | +14 points |
| Q3 2024 | 52% | +20 points |
QFIN has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
QFIN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $162.8M | -59% |
| Q1 2026 | $314.8M | -25% |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | -100% |
| Q3 2025 | $375.4M | +5.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $393.5M | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $421.1M | +43% |
| Q4 2024 | $435M | +28% |
| Q3 2024 | $355.9M | +91% |
QFIN has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over QFIN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
QFIN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +4.9% | +6.7M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -22.8M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -18.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.6% | -6.9M shares |
QFIN has 143M diluted shares, up 4.9% from a year ago, despite $707M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $706.5M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $446.2M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
QFIN spent $707M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 58% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
QFIN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
QFIN has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
QFIN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 24.0 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 2.9 | Oversold |
QFIN's weekly RSI is 24 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 3 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
QFIN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | QFIN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 0.7x | 13x | 94% below |
| PE % | 0 | 63 | 63 pts below |
QFIN has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over QFIN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
QFIN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.85 | 12% below |
| 20 week MA | $9.34 | 45% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.0 | 60% below |
| 100 week MA | $24.5 | 79% below |
| 200 week MA | $22.3 | 77% below |
QFIN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 77% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over QFIN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
QFIN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.41 | $10.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $10.8 | $22.0 | +103% |
| 2022 | $22.0 | $19.3 | -12% |
| 2023 | $19.3 | $15.8 | -18% |
| 2024 | $15.8 | $38.2 | +141% |
| 2025 | $38.2 | $20.0 | -48% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.0 | $5.15 | -74% |
QFIN's yearly returns have swung widely, from +141% in 2024 to −48% in 2025. It's down 74% so far in 2026.