MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over PLGO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
PLGO
Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit
PLGO trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
PLGO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
PLGO's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like PLGO.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over PLGO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
PLGO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.9x | $20.62 | -28% |
| Fair | 6.8x | $23.72 | -18% |
| Forward | 7.7x | $28.83 | — |
| Current | 8.3x | $28.83 | — |
| Expensive | 10x | $34.97 | +21% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PLGO's PE is in its fair range at 8.3x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 7.7x next year's earnings.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over PLGO on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
PLGO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PLGO, but weaker profitability.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
PLGO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.76 | +8.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.48 | +$3.49 |
| Q2 2026 | $3.98 | +$4.35 |
| Q1 2026 | $3.64 | +$3.73 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.11 | +115% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.98 | -95% |
PLGO has returned to profit: it earned $3.48 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over PLGO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over PLGO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PLGO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $800.9M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $650M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $610.6M | -7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $600.9M | -11% |
| Q3 2025 | $651.9M | -5% |
| Q2 2025 | $589.3M | +9.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $658.4M | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $673.8M | -81% |
PLGO's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $801M last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.2% | -16 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.1% | +4.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +25 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | +45 points |
| Q3 2025 | 25% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8% | -7.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -7.6% | -26 points |
| Q4 2024 | -21% | -78 points |
PLGO's operating margin was 9.2% last quarter, down 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
PLGO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $133.7M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | -$26.7M | +$332.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $273.6M | +$707M |
| Q4 2025 | $228.6M | +82% |
| Q3 2025 | $154.6M | -51% |
| Q2 2025 | -$359.3M | -274% |
| Q1 2025 | -$433.4M | -$397.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $125.4M | -74% |
PLGO has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
PLGO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.5% | -2.1M shares |
| 1 year | -21% | -22M shares |
| 3 years | -29% | -33.5M shares |
PLGO has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $83M |
| Q2 2026 | $60.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $219.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $118.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $31.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $88.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $22.1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
PLGO spent $481M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
PLGO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -30.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
PLGO has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
PLGO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 74.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 91.0 | Overbought |
PLGO's weekly RSI is 75 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 91 (overbought).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
PLGO PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | PLGO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.3x | 13x | 36% below |
| PE % | 64 | 46 | 18 pts above |
PLGO has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
PLGO has stronger trend alignment. MS is above 3 of 5 weekly averages versus PLGO above 4 of 4.
PLGO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $25.8 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $25.3 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $22.2 | 30% above |
| 100 week MA | $19.5 | 48% above |
PLGO is in an uptrend: it's above all four of its weekly moving averages, and 48% above its 100-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
PLGO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $13.7 | $12.7 | -7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.7 | $17.6 | +39% |
| 2025 | $17.6 | $19.5 | +11% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.5 | $28.8 | +48% |
PLGO has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.