MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over PFSI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
PFSI
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.
PFSI trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
PFSI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
PFSI's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like PFSI.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over PFSI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
PFSI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.6x | $16.03 | -74% |
| Fair | 8.9x | $39.77 | -35% |
| Forward | 9.3x | $60.73 | — |
| Current | 14x | $60.73 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $80.01 | +32% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PFSI's PE is in its expensive range at 14x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.3x, in its fair range.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over PFSI on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
PFSI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect PFSI's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
PFSI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.51 | +46% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.45 | -52% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.28 | +1% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.41 | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.30 | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.28 | +192% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.21 | +98% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.52 | +124% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.84 | +113% |
PFSI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.45 over the past year, against $22.34 in early 2021.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over PFSI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PFSI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $468.8M | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $497M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $545M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $538M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $632.9M | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $444.7M | +9.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $430.9M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $470.1M | +30% |
PFSI's revenue fell from its 2020 peak and has held roughly level since: $469M last quarter, down 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.1% | -28 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.3% | -11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 25% | -2.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 37% | +15 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -16 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | +9.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 28% | +43 points |
PFSI's operating margin was 9.1% last quarter, down 28 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
PFSI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $850.3M | +$1.5B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B | +$2.3B |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.3B | -226% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.9B | +$251.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$699.4M | -$305.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$132.6M | +$960.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +$2B |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.1B | -600% |
PFSI has the edge over MS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over PFSI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
PFSI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -117K shares |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -745K shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +573K shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -12.5M shares |
| Available history | -34% | -27.2M shares |
PFSI has 53M diluted shares, down 1.4% from a year ago, with $50M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $50M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $84,000 |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | $26.2M |
| Q1 2023 | $45.4M |
PFSI spent $50M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS has the edge over PFSI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PFSI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17.2x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 10.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.9x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 9.8x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 9.3x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 11.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 10.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 11.0x | High |
PFSI's net debt is about 17 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 9.3 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PFSI.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
PFSI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.4 | Neutral |
PFSI's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 22 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
PFSI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | PFSI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 4.8% above |
| PE % | 67 | 63 | 4 pts above |
PFSI has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over PFSI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PFSI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $62.6 | 2.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $71.3 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $89.8 | 32% below |
| 100 week MA | $98.3 | 38% below |
| 200 week MA | $90.4 | 33% below |
PFSI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 33% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over PFSI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PFSI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $33.9 | $65.3 | +92% |
| 2021 | $65.3 | $70.0 | +7.2% |
| 2022 | $70.0 | $56.8 | -19% |
| 2023 | $56.8 | $88.4 | +56% |
| 2024 | $88.4 | $102.1 | +16% |
| 2025 | $102.1 | $133.9 | +31% |
| 2026 YTD | $133.9 | $60.7 | -55% |
PFSI is down 55% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.