PFSI
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.
PFSI's fundamentals are weak and it looks expensive: trading at 14x earnings, above its usual 9.0x. Its downside scenario is about seven times its upside.
PFSI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
PFSI's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like PFSI.
PFSI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.6x | $16.03 | -74% |
| Fair | 8.9x | $39.77 | -35% |
| Forward | 9.3x | $60.73 | — |
| Current | 14x | $60.73 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $80.01 | +32% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PFSI's PE is in its expensive range at 14x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.3x, in its fair range.
PFSI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect PFSI's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening.
PFSI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.51 | +46% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.45 | -52% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.28 | +1% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.41 | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.30 | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.28 | +192% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.21 | +98% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.52 | +124% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.84 | +113% |
PFSI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.45 over the past year, against $22.34 in early 2021.
PFSI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $468.8M | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $497M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $545M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $538M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $632.9M | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $444.7M | +9.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $430.9M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $470.1M | +30% |
PFSI's revenue fell from its 2020 peak and has held roughly level since: $469M last quarter, down 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.1% | -28 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.3% | -11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 25% | -2.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 37% | +15 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -16 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | +9.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 28% | +43 points |
PFSI's operating margin was 9.1% last quarter, down 28 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
PFSI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $850.3M | +$1.5B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B | +$2.3B |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.3B | -226% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.9B | +$251.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$699.4M | -$305.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$132.6M | +$960.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +$2B |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.1B | -600% |
PFSI's free cash flow was −$252M over the past year, against −$1.9B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PFSI.
PFSI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -117K shares |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -745K shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +573K shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -12.5M shares |
| Available history | -34% | -27.2M shares |
PFSI has 53M diluted shares, down 1.4% from a year ago, with $50M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $50M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $84,000 |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | $26.2M |
| Q1 2023 | $45.4M |
PFSI spent $50M buying back its own shares over the past year.
PFSI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17.2x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 10.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.9x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 9.8x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 9.3x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 11.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 10.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 11.0x | High |
PFSI's net debt is about 17 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 9.3 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PFSI.
PFSI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.4 | Neutral |
PFSI's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 22 (neutral).
PFSI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | PFSI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 4.8% above |
| PE % | 67 | 63 | 4 pts above |
PFSI is trading at 14x earnings, in line with the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
PFSI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $62.6 | 2.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $71.3 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $89.8 | 32% below |
| 100 week MA | $98.3 | 38% below |
| 200 week MA | $90.4 | 33% below |
PFSI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 33% below its 200-week average.
PFSI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $33.9 | $65.3 | +92% |
| 2021 | $65.3 | $70.0 | +7.2% |
| 2022 | $70.0 | $56.8 | -19% |
| 2023 | $56.8 | $88.4 | +56% |
| 2024 | $88.4 | $102.1 | +16% |
| 2025 | $102.1 | $133.9 | +31% |
| 2026 YTD | $133.9 | $60.7 | -55% |
PFSI is down 55% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.