MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc.
OWL has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
OWL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
OWL's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like OWL.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
OWL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 10x | $9.75 | — |
| Current | 70x | $9.75 | — |
| Cheap | 90x | $12.57 | +29% |
| Fair | 142x | $19.84 | +104% |
| Expensive | 192x | $26.83 | +175% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OWL has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
OWL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for OWL, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over OWL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
OWL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.94 | +574% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.14 | +56% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.12 | 0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.12 | -25% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.10 | -50% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.09 | -47% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.12 | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.16 | +33% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.20 | +100% |
OWL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.14 over the past year, against $0.20 in late 2024. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over OWL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over OWL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
OWL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $806.5M | +436% |
| Q2 2026 | $137M | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $138M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $146.8M | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $150.4M | -75% |
| Q2 2025 | $138M | -75% |
| Q1 2025 | $132.6M | -74% |
| Q4 2024 | $137.6M | -72% |
OWL's revenue is growing: $807M last quarter, up 436% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | +327 points |
| Q2 2026 | -365% | -27 points |
| Q1 2026 | -367% | -9.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | -301% | -43 points |
| Q3 2025 | -309% | -332 points |
| Q2 2025 | -338% | -369 points |
| Q1 2025 | -357% | -388 points |
| Q4 2024 | -258% | -282 points |
OWL's operating margin was 18% last quarter, up 327 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OWL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $601.4M | +42% |
| Q2 2026 | $452.9M | +9.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $89M | +1996% |
| Q4 2025 | $359.1M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $422.5M | +34% |
| Q2 2025 | $412.5M | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.2M | -90% |
| Q4 2024 | $310.1M | +13% |
OWL has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over OWL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
OWL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.5% | +10.6M shares |
| 1 year | +3.7% | +25.2M shares |
| 3 years | -51% | -732M shares |
| 5 years | +118% | +379M shares |
OWL has 699M diluted shares, up 3.7% from a year ago, despite $77M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $25M |
| Q4 2025 | $52M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
OWL spent $77M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OWL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | 6.3x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2024 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2024 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2023 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2023 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2023 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2023 | 4.8x | High |
OWL's net debt is about 6.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.5 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like OWL.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
OWL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 32.1 | Neutral |
OWL's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 32 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over OWL on valuation relative to its sector.
OWL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | OWL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 70x | 13x | 435% above |
| PE % | 0 | 61 | 61 pts below |
OWL is trading at 70x earnings, a 435% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x, though its earnings don't support one.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over OWL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
OWL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.50 | 2.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.2 | 4.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $11.0 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.1 | 36% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.3 | 36% below |
OWL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 36% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over OWL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
OWL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.8 | $11.6 | +7.2% |
| 2021 | $11.6 | $14.9 | +29% |
| 2022 | $14.9 | $10.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $10.7 | $14.9 | +39% |
| 2024 | $14.9 | $23.6 | +58% |
| 2025 | $23.6 | $15.0 | -36% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.0 | $9.75 | -35% |
OWL is down 35% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.