MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over OVLY overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
OVLY
Oak Valley Bancorp
OVLY trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
OVLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
OVLY's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like OVLY.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
OVLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.7x | $21.46 | -38% |
| Fair | 9.3x | $25.93 | -25% |
| Expensive | 12x | $32.28 | -6.6% |
| Current | 12x | $34.57 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OVLY has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
OVLY Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for OVLY to show an outlook.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over OVLY on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
OVLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.78 | -2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.82 | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.88 | -3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.88 | -4.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.85 | -5.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.93 | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.97 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.02 | -19% |
OVLY's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.78 over the past year, against $4.18 in late 2023.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over OVLY on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
OVLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $21.7M | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.6M | +3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.8M | +7% |
| Q4 2025 | $21.3M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $21.2M | +8.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.9M | +4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.4M | +3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.3M | -2% |
OVLY's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $22M last quarter, up 2.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 38% | -2.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 31% | -4.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 33% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 38% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | -10 points |
| Q2 2025 | 36% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 35% | -3.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 40% | +0.5 points |
OVLY has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OVLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9.1M | +43% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.4M | -15% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.8M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4M | +119% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.3M | -27% |
| Q2 2025 | $4M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.8M | -17% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.4M | +$4.9M |
OVLY has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over OVLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
OVLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +15K shares |
| 1 year | +0.6% | +49K shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +116K shares |
| 5 years | +2% | +165K shares |
| Available history | +2.9% | +231K shares |
OVLY has 8M diluted shares, up 0.6% from a year ago.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
OVLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -6.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -7.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -7.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -6.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -6.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
OVLY has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
OVLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.6 | Neutral |
OVLY's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
OVLY PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | OVLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 4.5% below |
| PE % | 96 | 63 | 33 pts above |
OVLY has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
OVLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $34.1 | 1.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $34.0 | 1.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $33.1 | 4.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $30.0 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $27.9 | 24% above |
OVLY has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
OVLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.6 | $17.4 | -11% |
| 2021 | $17.4 | $17.3 | -0.9% |
| 2022 | $17.3 | $21.7 | +26% |
| 2023 | $21.7 | $30.0 | +38% |
| 2024 | $30.0 | $29.7 | -0.8% |
| 2025 | $29.7 | $30.0 | +1.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $30.0 | $34.6 | +15% |
OVLY has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.