MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over ORI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ORI
Old Republic International Corporation
ORI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
ORI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ORI's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ORI.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
ORI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.2x | $23.06 | -42% |
| Current | 9x | $40.04 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $46.32 | +16% |
| Forward | 13x | $40.04 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $61.39 | +53% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ORI has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over ORI on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
ORI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ORI's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over ORI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ORI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.16 | -29% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.44 | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.56 | +29% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.06 | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.72 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.32 | -5.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.53 | +48% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.07 | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | +54% |
ORI earned $4.44 per share over the past year, up 34% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over ORI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over ORI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ORI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6B | +5.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.4B | +3.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | +4.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | +3.1% |
ORI's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $2.6B last quarter, up 5.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -3.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | +4.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +2.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +4.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | -3.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | -5.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.5% | -5.7 points |
ORI's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 3.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ORI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $429.4M | -24% |
| Q2 2026 | $199.7M | +49% |
| Q1 2026 | $281.4M | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $234.9M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $563.9M | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $133.8M | -43% |
| Q1 2025 | $231.7M | +44% |
| Q4 2024 | $361.7M | +28% |
ORI has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
ORI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +431K shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -4.6M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -33.2M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -56.8M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -54.9M shares |
ORI has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $60.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $159.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $55.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $43.3M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $25.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $174.4M |
ORI spent $388M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 60% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ORI Net Leverage
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
ORI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.0 | Neutral |
ORI's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
ORI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ORI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9x | 13x | 31% below |
| PE % | 30 | 63 | 33 pts below |
ORI has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
ORI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $38.8 | 3.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $40.7 | 1.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $40.9 | 2% below |
| 100 week MA | $39.7 | 0.9% above |
| 200 week MA | $34.6 | 16% above |
ORI's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 16% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over ORI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ORI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.2 | $19.2 | -14% |
| 2021 | $19.2 | $24.1 | +25% |
| 2022 | $24.1 | $24.3 | +0.7% |
| 2023 | $24.3 | $29.4 | +21% |
| 2024 | $29.4 | $36.4 | +24% |
| 2025 | $36.4 | $46.6 | +28% |
| 2026 YTD | $46.6 | $40.0 | -14% |
ORI has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 14% so far in 2026.