MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ONB
Old National Bancorp
ONB has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
ONB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ONB's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ONB.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
ONB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9x | $22.15 | -11% |
| Forward | 9.2x | $24.94 | — |
| Current | 10x | $24.94 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $28.68 | +15% |
| Expensive | 14x | $34.10 | +37% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ONB has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over ONB on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
ONB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect ONB's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over ONB on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ONB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.72 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.45 | +43% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.25 | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.94 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.79 | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.71 | +3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.69 | -0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.72 | -7% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.68 | -13% |
ONB earned $2.45 per share over the past year, up 43% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ONB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $712.7M | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $732.6M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $694.9M | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $690.6M | +41% |
| Q3 2025 | $705.1M | +45% |
| Q2 2025 | $647.3M | +36% |
| Q1 2025 | $481.4M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $489.9M | +5.5% |
ONB has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 45% | +12 points |
| Q2 2026 | 44% | +20 points |
| Q1 2026 | 42% | +4.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +1.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | -5.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 24% | -8.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 38% | +2.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 38% | +1.7 points |
ONB has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ONB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $373.2M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $275.9M | +330% |
| Q1 2026 | $193.3M | +89% |
| Q4 2025 | $137.3M | -40% |
| Q3 2025 | $333.6M | +188% |
| Q2 2025 | $64.1M | -58% |
| Q1 2025 | $102.4M | +7% |
| Q4 2024 | $229M | +266% |
ONB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
ONB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -2.4M shares |
| 1 year | -2.5% | -9.6M shares |
| 3 years | +31% | +89.2M shares |
| 5 years | +130% | +215M shares |
| Available history | +124% | +211M shares |
ONB has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $100.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $115.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $104.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $25.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $25.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $8M |
| Q1 2025 | $13.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $139,000 |
ONB spent $345M buying back its own shares over the past year, about seven times what it spent the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ONB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 6.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3x | High |
ONB has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
ONB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.1 | Neutral |
ONB's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 28 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
ONB PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ONB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 22% below |
| PE % | 28 | 63 | 35 pts below |
ONB has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
ONB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $25.0 | 0.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $25.7 | 3.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $24.4 | 2.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $23.0 | 8.4% above |
| 200 week MA | $19.8 | 26% above |
ONB has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 26% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
ONB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.3 | $16.6 | -9.3% |
| 2021 | $16.6 | $17.9 | +8.1% |
| 2022 | $17.9 | $17.8 | -0.7% |
| 2023 | $17.8 | $16.9 | -5% |
| 2024 | $16.9 | $21.8 | +29% |
| 2025 | $21.8 | $23.0 | +5.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $23.0 | $24.9 | +8.5% |
ONB has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.