MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over NODK overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
NODK
NI Holdings, Inc.
NODK has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
NODK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NODK's profitability is currently strong, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NODK.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over NODK in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NODK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 10x | $7.54 | -50% |
| Fair | 17x | $12.02 | -20% |
| Current | 21x | $14.97 | — |
| Expensive | 96x | $69.38 | +363% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NODK's PE is in its fair range at 21x.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
NODK Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for NODK to show an outlook.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over NODK on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NODK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.72 | +414% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.37 | +311% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.21 | +$0.07 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.50 | -$0.21 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.14 | +$0.60 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.09 | +$0.41 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.28 | -217% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.29 | -$0.03 |
NODK's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.72 over the past year, against $2.47 in early 2021.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over NODK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over NODK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NODK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $68.6M | -10% |
| Q2 2026 | $70.2M | -7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $59.6M | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $61M | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $76.6M | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.1M | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $71.4M | -22% |
| Q4 2024 | $73.9M | -22% |
NODK's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $69M last quarter, down 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | +13 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3% | +21 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | +16 points |
| Q4 2025 | -4.8% | -24 points |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | -20% | -9.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +6.5 points |
NODK's operating margin was 10% last quarter, up 13 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS has the edge over NODK on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NODK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$15.3M | +$29.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $893K | -86% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.9M | -119% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.2M | -38% |
| Q3 2025 | -$44.8M | -$26.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $6.2M | -65% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.9M | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.5M | -26% |
NODK's free cash flow was −$3M over the past year, against −$7M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NODK.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over NODK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
NODK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -58.4K shares |
| 1 year | -0.9% | -185K shares |
| 3 years | -1.8% | -377K shares |
| 5 years | -2.8% | -595K shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -1.4M shares |
NODK has 21M diluted shares, down 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | $2.6M |
| Q1 2023 | $621,000 |
| Q4 2022 | $1.3M |
| Q3 2022 | $939,000 |
| Q2 2022 | $934,000 |
| Q1 2022 | $997,000 |
| Q4 2021 | $1.1M |
| Q3 2021 | $944,000 |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NODK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -4.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -4.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -6.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2021 | -5.3x | Net Cash |
NODK has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NODK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 29.3 | Neutral |
NODK's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over NODK on valuation relative to its sector.
NODK PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NODK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 13x | 60% above |
| PE % | 54 | 63 | 9 pts below |
NODK is trading at 21x earnings, a 60% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
NODK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $14.9 | 0.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $15.3 | 1.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $14.3 | 4.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $13.9 | 7.4% above |
| 200 week MA | $14.0 | 6.6% above |
NODK has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
NODK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.3 | $16.7 | -3.5% |
| 2021 | $16.7 | $19.0 | +14% |
| 2022 | $19.0 | $13.4 | -30% |
| 2023 | $13.4 | $13.0 | -2.8% |
| 2024 | $13.0 | $15.7 | +21% |
| 2025 | $15.7 | $13.5 | -14% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.5 | $15.0 | +11% |
NODK has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.