MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over NMIH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NMIH
NMI Holdings, Inc.
NMIH offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
NMIH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NMIH's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NMIH.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
NMIH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.9x | $34.99 | -10% |
| Forward | 7.3x | $38.88 | — |
| Current | 7.6x | $38.88 | — |
| Fair | 8.1x | $41.23 | +6% |
| Expensive | 9.8x | $50.07 | +29% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NMIH has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over NMIH on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
NMIH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect NMIH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over NMIH on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
NMIH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.30 | +3.9% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.10 | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.09 | +8.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.92 | +6.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.92 | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.78 | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.71 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.63 | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.43 | +15% |
NMIH's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $5.10 over the past year, up 6.7% from the year before, and higher year over year for 21 quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over NMIH on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NMIH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $187.6M | +5% |
| Q2 2026 | $187.9M | +8.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $183.5M | +5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $180.7M | +8.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $178.7M | +7.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $173.8M | +7.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $173.2M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $166.5M | +10% |
NMIH's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $188M last quarter, up 5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 64% | -5.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 73% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 68% | -7.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 67% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 69% | -2.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 71% | -2.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 76% | +2.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 67% | -2.9 points |
NMIH has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NMIH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $108.9M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $140.2M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $115M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $60.1M | +75% |
| Q3 2025 | $126.3M | -0.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $126.7M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.4M | -9.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $34.4M | +20% |
NMIH has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
NMIH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -468K shares |
| 1 year | -3.4% | -2.7M shares |
| 3 years | -9% | -7.6M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -10.8M shares |
| Available history | +8.3% | +5.8M shares |
NMIH has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $27.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $32.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $27.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $30.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $24.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $24M |
| Q1 2025 | $25.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $28.7M |
NMIH spent $118M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NMIH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.8x | Very low |
NMIH has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NMIH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 38.6 | Neutral |
NMIH's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 39 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
NMIH PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NMIH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.6x | 13x | 41% below |
| PE % | 32 | 63 | 31 pts below |
NMIH has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over NMIH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NMIH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $40.5 | 4% below |
| 20 week MA | $42.4 | 8.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $40.2 | 3.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $38.8 | 0.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $34.6 | 12% above |
NMIH has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 12% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over NMIH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NMIH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $33.6 | $22.8 | -32% |
| 2021 | $22.8 | $21.3 | -6.2% |
| 2022 | $21.3 | $20.6 | -3.4% |
| 2023 | $20.6 | $29.7 | +44% |
| 2024 | $29.7 | $36.7 | +24% |
| 2025 | $36.7 | $41.4 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $41.4 | $38.9 | -6.1% |
NMIH has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 6.1% so far in 2026.