MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over NIC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
NIC
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.
NIC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
NIC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NIC's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NIC.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
NIC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $108 | -38% |
| Forward | 13x | $174 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $125 | -28% |
| Expensive | 17x | $157 | -10% |
| Current | 19x | $174 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NIC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over NIC on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
NIC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NIC, with profitability holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over NIC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NIC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +48% |
| Q3 2026 | $9.02 | -3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.79 | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.51 | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.78 | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.36 | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.73 | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.31 | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.05 | +97% |
NIC earned $9.02 per share over the past year, down 3.6% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over NIC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NIC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $174.4M | +70% |
| Q2 2026 | $177.8M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $134.9M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $104M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $102.9M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $95.7M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $89.4M | +8.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $92.4M | +4.2% |
NIC's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $174M last quarter, up 70% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 47% | -3.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | -31 points |
| Q4 2025 | 48% | +1.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 50% | +5.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 47% | +3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 45% | +3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 47% | +4.6 points |
NIC has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NIC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $67.1M | +46% |
| Q2 2026 | $89.3M | +133% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.1M | -64% |
| Q4 2025 | $23.9M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $45.9M | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $38.4M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $41.3M | +106% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.1M | -19% |
NIC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over NIC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
NIC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -186K shares |
| 1 year | +40% | +6.1M shares |
| 3 years | +44% | +6.6M shares |
| 5 years | +109% | +11.2M shares |
| Available history | +118% | +11.6M shares |
NIC has 22M diluted shares, up 40% from a year ago, despite $103M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $40M |
| Q2 2026 | $40.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $20.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $30M |
| Q1 2025 | $26M |
| Q4 2024 | $10.1M |
NIC spent $103M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 18% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NIC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
NIC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NIC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 64.4 | Neutral |
NIC's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 64 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over NIC on valuation relative to its sector.
NIC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NIC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 13x | 48% above |
| PE % | 90 | 63 | 27 pts above |
NIC is trading at 19x earnings, a 48% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
NIC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $169.0 | 3.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $170.0 | 2.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $153.9 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $137.3 | 27% above |
| 200 week MA | $108.8 | 60% above |
NIC has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
NIC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $74.6 | $68.0 | -8.9% |
| 2021 | $68.0 | $87.0 | +28% |
| 2022 | $87.0 | $80.9 | -6.9% |
| 2023 | $80.9 | $80.5 | -0.6% |
| 2024 | $80.5 | $104.6 | +30% |
| 2025 | $104.6 | $123.7 | +18% |
| 2026 YTD | $123.7 | $174.1 | +41% |
NIC has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.