MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NBTB
NBT Bancorp Inc.
NBTB has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
NBTB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NBTB's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NBTB.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
NBTB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $45.27 | -14% |
| Forward | 12x | $52.72 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $54.56 | +3.5% |
| Current | 13x | $52.72 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $62.58 | +19% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NBTB has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
NBTB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NBTB, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over NBTB on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
NBTB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.46 | +6.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.20 | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.12 | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.54 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.33 | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.01 | +6.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.78 | +8.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.03 | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.97 | +12% |
NBTB's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $4.20 over the past year, up 40% from the year before, and higher year over year for eight quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over NBTB on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NBTB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $195M | +4.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $186.7M | +9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $184.5M | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $185.1M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $186.1M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $171.2M | +22% |
| Q1 2025 | $154.7M | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $148.5M | +7.9% |
NBTB's revenue has grown year over year for 13 quarters in a row: $195M last quarter, up 4.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 39% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 37% | +19 points |
| Q1 2026 | 36% | +5.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 38% | +7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +5.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 31% | +1.8 points |
NBTB has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NBTB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $74.4M | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $60.5M | +37% |
| Q1 2026 | $48.6M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $62.1M | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $74.3M | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.1M | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $38.3M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $45.5M | +39% |
NBTB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over NBTB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
NBTB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -21K shares |
| 1 year | -0.9% | -466K shares |
| 3 years | +15% | +6.8M shares |
| 5 years | +20% | +8.6M shares |
| Available history | +19% | +8.1M shares |
NBTB has 52M diluted shares, down 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1M |
| Q2 2026 | $3M |
| Q1 2026 | $11M |
| Q4 2025 | $10.2M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
NBTB spent $25M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NBTB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
NBTB has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NBTB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.8 | Neutral |
NBTB's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
NBTB PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NBTB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 13x | 3.6% below |
| PE % | 41 | 63 | 22 pts below |
NBTB has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
NBTB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $51.8 | 1.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $51.9 | 1.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $47.3 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $45.3 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $41.8 | 26% above |
NBTB has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
NBTB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $40.7 | $31.9 | -22% |
| 2021 | $31.9 | $38.0 | +19% |
| 2022 | $38.0 | $43.4 | +14% |
| 2023 | $43.4 | $41.9 | -3.4% |
| 2024 | $41.9 | $48.4 | +16% |
| 2025 | $48.4 | $42.7 | -12% |
| 2026 YTD | $42.7 | $52.7 | +23% |
NBTB has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.