MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over NBHC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
NBHC
National Bank Holdings Corporation
NBHC's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
NBHC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NBHC's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NBHC.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over NBHC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NBHC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.6x | $37.04 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $13.75 | -63% |
| Fair | 13x | $16.12 | -56% |
| Expensive | 15x | $19.14 | -48% |
| Current | 29x | $37.04 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NBHC's PE is in its expensive range at 29x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.6x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
NBHC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NBHC, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over NBHC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NBHC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.87 | +207% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.26 | -60% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.38 | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.68 | -7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.85 | -7.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.15 | -2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.09 | -6.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.89 | -17% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.08 | -17% |
NBHC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.26 over the past year, against $3.72 in late 2023.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over NBHC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over NBHC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NBHC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $126.4M | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $129.1M | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $126.8M | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $100.6M | -0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $108.9M | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $104.5M | +7% |
| Q1 2025 | $102.1M | +0.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $101.3M | -4.1% |
NBHC's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $126M last quarter, up 16% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -9.5% | -49 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | -15 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | -8.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -15 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 40% | +7.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 29% | -9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 34% | -2.6 points |
NBHC's operating margin was −9.5% last quarter, down 49 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NBHC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $66.1M | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $135.1M | +318% |
| Q1 2026 | -$56.8M | -243% |
| Q4 2025 | $38.1M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $52.4M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $32.3M | +1.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $39.6M | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $46.4M | +4% |
NBHC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over NBHC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
NBHC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -157K shares |
| 1 year | +18% | +6.7M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +6.6M shares |
| 5 years | +44% | +13.7M shares |
| Available history | +42% | +13.2M shares |
NBHC has 45M diluted shares, up 18% from a year ago, despite $41M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $11.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $16.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $8.8M |
| Q4 2021 | $17M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
NBHC spent $41M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
NBHC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
NBHC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NBHC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.4 | Oversold |
NBHC's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 6 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over NBHC on valuation relative to its sector.
NBHC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NBHC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29x | 13x | 126% above |
| PE % | 100 | 63 | 37 pts above |
NBHC is trading at 29x earnings, a 126% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over NBHC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NBHC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $38.0 | 2.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $41.0 | 9.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $41.0 | 9.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $39.8 | 7% below |
| 200 week MA | $38.2 | 2.9% below |
NBHC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 2.9% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over NBHC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NBHC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $35.3 | $33.1 | -6.3% |
| 2021 | $33.1 | $43.5 | +32% |
| 2022 | $43.5 | $42.1 | -3.3% |
| 2023 | $42.1 | $37.2 | -12% |
| 2024 | $37.2 | $43.2 | +16% |
| 2025 | $43.2 | $38.8 | -10% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.8 | $37.0 | -4.6% |
NBHC has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 4.6% so far in 2026.