NBHC
National Bank Holdings Corporation
NBHC's fundamentals are weak and it looks expensive: trading at 29x earnings, more than twice its usual 13x. Its downside scenario is about six times its upside.
NBHC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NBHC's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NBHC.
NBHC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.6x | $37.04 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $13.75 | -63% |
| Fair | 13x | $16.12 | -56% |
| Expensive | 15x | $19.14 | -48% |
| Current | 29x | $37.04 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NBHC's PE is in its expensive range at 29x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.6x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NBHC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NBHC, with profitability improving.
NBHC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.87 | +207% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.26 | -60% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.38 | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.68 | -7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.85 | -7.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.15 | -2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.09 | -6.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.89 | -17% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.08 | -17% |
NBHC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.26 over the past year, against $3.72 in late 2023.
NBHC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $126.4M | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $129.1M | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $126.8M | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $100.6M | -0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $108.9M | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $104.5M | +7% |
| Q1 2025 | $102.1M | +0.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $101.3M | -4.1% |
NBHC's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $126M last quarter, up 16% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -9.5% | -49 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | -15 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | -8.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -15 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 40% | +7.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 29% | -9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 34% | -2.6 points |
NBHC's operating margin was −9.5% last quarter, down 49 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
NBHC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $66.1M | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $135.1M | +318% |
| Q1 2026 | -$56.8M | -243% |
| Q4 2025 | $38.1M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $52.4M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $32.3M | +1.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $39.6M | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $46.4M | +4% |
NBHC's free cash flow was $182M over the past year, up 6.8% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NBHC.
NBHC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -157K shares |
| 1 year | +18% | +6.7M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +6.6M shares |
| 5 years | +44% | +13.7M shares |
| Available history | +42% | +13.2M shares |
NBHC has 45M diluted shares, up 18% from a year ago, despite $41M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $11.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $16.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $8.8M |
| Q4 2021 | $17M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
NBHC spent $41M buying back its own shares over the past year.
NBHC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
NBHC has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NBHC.
NBHC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.4 | Oversold |
NBHC's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 6 (oversold).
NBHC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NBHC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29x | 13x | 126% above |
| PE % | 100 | 63 | 37 pts above |
NBHC is trading at 29x earnings, a 126% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
NBHC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $38.0 | 2.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $41.0 | 9.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $41.0 | 9.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $39.8 | 7% below |
| 200 week MA | $38.2 | 2.9% below |
NBHC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 2.9% below its 200-week average.
NBHC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $35.3 | $33.1 | -6.3% |
| 2021 | $33.1 | $43.5 | +32% |
| 2022 | $43.5 | $42.1 | -3.3% |
| 2023 | $42.1 | $37.2 | -12% |
| 2024 | $37.2 | $43.2 | +16% |
| 2025 | $43.2 | $38.8 | -10% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.8 | $37.0 | -4.6% |
NBHC has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 4.6% so far in 2026.