MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over MTG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
MTG
MGIC Investment Corporation
MTG has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MTG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MTG's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MTG.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over MTG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MTG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.7x | $18.32 | -34% |
| Fair | 8.2x | $26.43 | -4.8% |
| Forward | 8.3x | $27.76 | — |
| Current | 8.6x | $27.76 | — |
| Expensive | 9.3x | $29.95 | +7.9% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MTG's PE is in its fair range at 8.6x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 8.3x next year's earnings.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over MTG on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
MTG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MTG's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over MTG on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MTG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.36 | +4.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.22 | +3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.20 | +5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.15 | +5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.14 | +8.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.10 | +9.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.04 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.00 | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.89 | +16% |
MTG's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.22 over the past year, up 3.9% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over MTG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MTG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $299.1M | -1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $295.4M | -2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $297.1M | -3% |
| Q4 2025 | $298.7M | -0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $304.5M | -0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $304.2M | -0.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $306.2M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $301.4M | +6.2% |
MTG's revenue has held roughly level: $299M last quarter, down 1.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 74% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 78% | -3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 70% | -7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 71% | -6.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 77% | -5.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 81% | -4.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 77% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 78% | -3.1 points |
MTG has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MTG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $216.3M | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $184.5M | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $76.7M | -66% |
| Q4 2025 | $230.2M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $215.1M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $183M | +8.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $223.5M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $181.9M | -2.1% |
MTG has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
MTG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.6% | -5.5M shares |
| 1 year | -11% | -26M shares |
| 3 years | -28% | -80.2M shares |
| 5 years | -42% | -148M shares |
| Available history | -45% | -169M shares |
MTG has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $151.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $184.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $192.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $189.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $187.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $186.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $225.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $194.7M |
MTG spent $718M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 9.6% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MTG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
MTG has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MTG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 42.7 | Neutral |
MTG's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 43 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MTG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MTG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.6x | 13x | 34% below |
| PE % | 62 | 63 | 1 pt below |
MTG has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over MTG on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MTG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $28.0 | 1% below |
| 20 week MA | $29.2 | 5.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $27.9 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $27.0 | 2.9% above |
| 200 week MA | $23.1 | 20% above |
MTG has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 20% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over MTG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MTG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.1 | $12.3 | -13% |
| 2021 | $12.3 | $14.1 | +15% |
| 2022 | $14.1 | $12.9 | -8.2% |
| 2023 | $12.9 | $19.3 | +49% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $23.7 | +23% |
| 2025 | $23.7 | $29.8 | +26% |
| 2026 YTD | $29.8 | $27.8 | -6.8% |
MTG has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 6.8% so far in 2026.