MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over MTB overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
MTB
M&T Bank Corporation
MTB offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MTB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MTB's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MTB.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
MTB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.1x | $174 | -21% |
| Forward | 11x | $220 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $230 | +4.8% |
| Current | 12x | $220 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $269 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MTB has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over MTB on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
MTB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect MTB's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over MTB on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MTB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.37 | +6.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.11 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.89 | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.81 | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.00 | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $16.25 | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.45 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.94 | +0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.64 | -7.3% |
MTB earned $19.11 per share over the past year, up 18% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over MTB on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MTB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.5B | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +5.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.5B | +3.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B | +7.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.3B | +2% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.4B | +3.7% |
MTB's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $2.5B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 42% | +3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 35% | +2.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +2.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +1.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 39% | +1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +9.8 points |
MTB has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MTB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +50% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +59% |
| Q4 2025 | $523M | -69% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | +$1B |
| Q2 2025 | $844M | -38% |
| Q1 2025 | $635M | +4.4% |
| Q3 2024 | -$28M | -102% |
MTB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
MTB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.1% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -7.3% | -11.4M shares |
| 3 years | -13% | -21.4M shares |
| 5 years | +13% | +16.3M shares |
| Available history | +8% | +10.7M shares |
MTB has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $319M |
| Q2 2026 | $460M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2025 | $502M |
| Q3 2025 | $404M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B |
| Q1 2025 | $656M |
| Q4 2024 | $198M |
MTB spent $2.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 8.3% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MTB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.3x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
MTB has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MTB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 17.4 | Oversold |
MTB's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 17 (oversold).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MTB PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MTB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 12% below |
| PE % | 39 | 63 | 24 pts below |
MTB has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
MTB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $219.1 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $233.4 | 5.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $222.2 | 1.1% below |
| 100 week MA | $204.8 | 7.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $175.3 | 25% above |
MTB's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 25% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
MTB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $169.6 | $125.0 | -26% |
| 2021 | $125.0 | $151.0 | +21% |
| 2022 | $151.0 | $144.6 | -4.2% |
| 2023 | $144.6 | $137.1 | -5.2% |
| 2024 | $137.1 | $189.2 | +38% |
| 2025 | $189.2 | $207.3 | +9.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $207.3 | $219.8 | +6% |
MTB has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.