MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MSCI
MSCI Inc.
MSCI has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MSCI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MSCI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MSCI.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
MSCI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $652 | — |
| Current | 34x | $652 | — |
| Cheap | 36x | $680 | +4.4% |
| Fair | 44x | $824 | +27% |
| Expensive | 60x | $1,132 | +74% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSCI has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
MSCI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MSCI, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over MSCI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSCI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $21.70 | +15% |
| Q3 2026 | $18.89 | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.28 | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.51 | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.69 | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $15.77 | +3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.09 | +1.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.54 | -0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.05 | -2.4% |
MSCI earned $18.89 per share over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over MSCI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSCI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $892M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $867M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $850.8M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $822.5M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $793.4M | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $772.7M | +9.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $745.8M | +9.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $743.5M | +7.7% |
MSCI's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $892M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 56% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 56% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 54% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 56% | +1.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 56% | +1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 55% | +1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 51% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 55% | +0.8 points |
MSCI has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MSCI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $422.7M | -5.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $359.8M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $304M | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $488.7M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $445.5M | +7.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $324.7M | -4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $290.2M | -1.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $416.4M | +8.1% |
MSCI has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
MSCI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -600K shares |
| 1 year | -5.6% | -4.3M shares |
| 3 years | -9.1% | -7.2M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -11.3M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -13.2M shares |
MSCI has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $552.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $168.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $414.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $906.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2025 | $138.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $213.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $374M |
MSCI spent $2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 4.7% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MSCI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.7x | Moderate |
MSCI has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MSCI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 64.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 83.3 | Overbought |
MSCI's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over MSCI on valuation relative to its sector.
MSCI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MSCI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34x | 13x | 165% above |
| PE % | 11 | 63 | 52 pts below |
MSCI is trading at 34x earnings, a 165% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
MSCI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $594.1 | 9.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $583.0 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $575.8 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $571.3 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $551.7 | 18% above |
MSCI has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
MSCI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $260.0 | $432.5 | +66% |
| 2021 | $432.5 | $611.3 | +41% |
| 2022 | $611.3 | $463.8 | -24% |
| 2023 | $463.8 | $565.7 | +22% |
| 2024 | $565.7 | $609.6 | +7.8% |
| 2025 | $609.6 | $585.0 | -4% |
| 2026 YTD | $585.0 | $651.5 | +11% |
MSCI has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.