MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over MSBI overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MSBI
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
MSBI's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MSBI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MSBI's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MSBI.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over MSBI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSBI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.7x | $15.25 | -52% |
| Fair | 8.8x | $20.08 | -37% |
| Forward | 9.1x | $31.72 | — |
| Current | 14x | $31.72 | — |
| Expensive | 16x | $36.37 | +15% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSBI's PE is in its expensive range at 14x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.1x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
MSBI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MSBI, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 29% for MS versus MSBI up 14%.
MSBI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.47 | +51% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.01 | -46% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.98 | -51% |
| Q1 2024 | $2.64 | -37% |
| Q4 2023 | $2.97 | -30% |
| Q3 2023 | $3.73 | -5.6% |
| Q2 2023 | $4.06 | +7.7% |
| Q1 2023 | $4.17 | +13% |
| Q4 2022 | $4.23 | +18% |
MSBI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.29 over the past year, against $4.23 in late 2022.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over MSBI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSBI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86M | +5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $83.4M | +1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $79.5M | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $85.6M | -8.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $81.1M | +9.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $82.2M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $76.1M | -1.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $93.9M | +31% |
MSBI's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $86M last quarter, up 5.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | +20 points |
| Q2 2026 | 31% | +13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 30% | +212 points |
| Q4 2025 | -3.8% | +38 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +6.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | -181% | -205 points |
| Q4 2024 | -41% | -70 points |
MSBI has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MSBI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $37.9M | -52% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.2M | +9.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.3M | -28% |
| Q4 2025 | -$7.8M | -115% |
| Q3 2025 | $78.6M | +153% |
| Q2 2025 | $26.7M | +61% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.9M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $52.8M | -38% |
MSBI has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
MSBI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +65.5K shares |
| 1 year | -3.3% | -724K shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -837K shares |
| 5 years | -6.4% | -1.4M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -3.4M shares |
MSBI has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $7.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $9.7M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $29,000 |
MSBI spent $20M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MSBI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.2x | High |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 5.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 16.1x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 5.1x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 6.7x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q4 2023 | 4.0x | High |
MSBI has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MSBI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.0 | Neutral |
MSBI's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MSBI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MSBI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 6.4% above |
| PE % | 79 | 63 | 16 pts above |
MSBI has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
MSBI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $32.5 | 2.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $32.6 | 2.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $27.5 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $22.8 | 39% above |
| 200 week MA | $23.0 | 38% above |
MSBI has slipped below its 8- and 20-week averages, though it's still 38% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
MSBI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.0 | $17.5 | -40% |
| 2021 | $17.5 | $25.0 | +43% |
| 2022 | $25.0 | $26.5 | +6.2% |
| 2023 | $26.5 | $27.6 | +3.9% |
| 2024 | $27.6 | $24.4 | -11% |
| 2025 | $24.4 | $21.2 | -13% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.2 | $31.7 | +50% |
MSBI has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.