MSBI
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
MSBI's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 14x earnings, above its usual 8.8x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth.
MSBI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MSBI's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MSBI.
MSBI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.7x | $15.25 | -52% |
| Fair | 8.8x | $20.08 | -37% |
| Forward | 9.1x | $31.72 | — |
| Current | 14x | $31.72 | — |
| Expensive | 16x | $36.37 | +15% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSBI's PE is in its expensive range at 14x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.1x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MSBI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MSBI, with profitability improving.
MSBI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.47 | +51% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.01 | -46% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.98 | -51% |
| Q1 2024 | $2.64 | -37% |
| Q4 2023 | $2.97 | -30% |
| Q3 2023 | $3.73 | -5.6% |
| Q2 2023 | $4.06 | +7.7% |
| Q1 2023 | $4.17 | +13% |
| Q4 2022 | $4.23 | +18% |
MSBI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.29 over the past year, against $4.23 in late 2022.
MSBI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86M | +5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $83.4M | +1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $79.5M | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $85.6M | -8.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $81.1M | +9.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $82.2M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $76.1M | -1.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $93.9M | +31% |
MSBI's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $86M last quarter, up 5.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | +20 points |
| Q2 2026 | 31% | +13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 30% | +212 points |
| Q4 2025 | -3.8% | +38 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +6.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | -181% | -205 points |
| Q4 2024 | -41% | -70 points |
MSBI's operating margin was 34% last quarter, up 20 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSBI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $37.9M | -52% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.2M | +9.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.3M | -28% |
| Q4 2025 | -$7.8M | -115% |
| Q3 2025 | $78.6M | +153% |
| Q2 2025 | $26.7M | +61% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.9M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $52.8M | -38% |
MSBI's free cash flow was $76M over the past year, down 58% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MSBI.
MSBI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +65.5K shares |
| 1 year | -3.3% | -724K shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -837K shares |
| 5 years | -6.4% | -1.4M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -3.4M shares |
MSBI has 21M diluted shares, down 3.3% from a year ago, with $20M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $7.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $9.7M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $29,000 |
MSBI spent $20M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
MSBI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.2x | High |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 5.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 16.1x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 5.1x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 6.7x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q4 2023 | 4.0x | High |
MSBI's net debt is about 5.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MSBI.
MSBI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.0 | Neutral |
MSBI's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
MSBI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MSBI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 6.4% above |
| PE % | 79 | 63 | 16 pts above |
MSBI is trading at 14x earnings, in line with the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MSBI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $32.5 | 2.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $32.6 | 2.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $27.5 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $22.8 | 39% above |
| 200 week MA | $23.0 | 38% above |
MSBI has slipped below its 8- and 20-week averages, though it's still 38% above its 200-week average.
MSBI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.0 | $17.5 | -40% |
| 2021 | $17.5 | $25.0 | +43% |
| 2022 | $25.0 | $26.5 | +6.2% |
| 2023 | $26.5 | $27.6 | +3.9% |
| 2024 | $27.6 | $24.4 | -11% |
| 2025 | $24.4 | $21.2 | -13% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.2 | $31.7 | +50% |
MSBI is up 50% so far in 2026, after finishing lower in three of the previous six years.