MFIN
Medallion Financial Corp.
MFIN trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over MFIN overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
MFIN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MFIN's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MFIN.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MFIN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.5x | $3.91 | -58% |
| Fair | 4.7x | $5.18 | -45% |
| Expensive | 6.7x | $7.41 | -21% |
| Current | 8.4x | $9.34 | — |
| Forward | 9.6x | $9.34 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MFIN's PE is in its expensive range at 8.4x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 9.6x next year's earnings.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over MFIN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MFIN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MFIN's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over MFIN on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
MFIN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.97 | -12% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.11 | -35% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.33 | -24% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.48 | -7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.78 | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.71 | +1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.76 | -2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.60 | -25% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.52 | -36% |
MFIN's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.11 over the past year, against $2.37 in late 2023.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over MFIN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MFIN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $61.8M | +5.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $61.7M | -1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $56.5M | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $70.6M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.7M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $62.6M | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $63M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $56.3M | +8.2% |
MFIN's revenue is growing: $62M last quarter, up 5.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -22 points |
| Q2 2026 | 23% | -7.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 21% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 29% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +6.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | +6.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 32% | -1.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 33% | -9.8 points |
MFIN's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 22 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over MFIN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over MFIN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MFIN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $44.6M | -33% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.5M | +$28.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $41.3M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $33.8M | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $67M | +146% |
| Q2 2025 | -$10.7M | -139% |
| Q1 2025 | $36.3M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.4M | +45% |
MFIN has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MFIN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -366K shares |
| 1 year | -3.2% | -790K shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +254K shares |
| 5 years | -5.4% | -1.3M shares |
| Available history | -2.9% | -696K shares |
MFIN has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $7.7M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $455,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $531,000 |
| Q4 2024 | — |
MFIN spent $13M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
MFIN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
MFIN has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MFIN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.1 | Oversold |
MFIN's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MFIN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MFIN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.4x | 13x | 35% below |
| PE % | 85 | 63 | 22 pts above |
MFIN has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MFIN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $11.0 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.2 | 8.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.84 | 5.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $9.02 | 3.5% above |
MFIN has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 3.5% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over MFIN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MFIN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.15 | $5.20 | -27% |
| 2021 | $5.20 | $8.45 | +62% |
| 2022 | $8.45 | $6.91 | -18% |
| 2023 | $6.91 | $9.85 | +43% |
| 2024 | $9.85 | $9.37 | -4.9% |
| 2025 | $9.37 | $10.6 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $10.6 | $9.34 | -12% |
MFIN has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 12% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over MFIN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.