MFIN
Medallion Financial Corp.
MFIN's fundamentals are weak and it looks expensive: trading at 8.4x earnings, above its usual 4.7x. Its downside scenario is about four times its upside.
MFIN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MFIN's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MFIN.
MFIN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.5x | $3.91 | -58% |
| Fair | 4.7x | $5.18 | -45% |
| Expensive | 6.7x | $7.41 | -21% |
| Current | 8.4x | $9.34 | — |
| Forward | 9.2x | $9.34 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MFIN's PE is in its expensive range at 8.4x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 9.2x next year's earnings.
MFIN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MFIN's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MFIN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.01 | -8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.11 | -35% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.33 | -24% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.48 | -7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.78 | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.71 | +1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.76 | -2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.60 | -25% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.52 | -36% |
MFIN's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.11 over the past year, against $2.37 in late 2023.
MFIN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $61.8M | +5.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $61.7M | -1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $56.5M | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $70.6M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.7M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $62.6M | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $63M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $56.3M | +8.2% |
MFIN's revenue is growing: $62M last quarter, up 5.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -22 points |
| Q2 2026 | 23% | -7.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 21% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 29% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +6.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | +6.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 32% | -1.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 33% | -9.8 points |
MFIN's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 22 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MFIN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $44.6M | -33% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.5M | +$28.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $41.3M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $33.8M | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $67M | +146% |
| Q2 2025 | -$10.7M | -139% |
| Q1 2025 | $36.3M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.4M | +45% |
MFIN's free cash flow was $137M over the past year, up 13% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MFIN.
MFIN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -366K shares |
| 1 year | -3.2% | -790K shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +254K shares |
| 5 years | -5.4% | -1.3M shares |
| Available history | -2.9% | -696K shares |
MFIN has 24M diluted shares, down 3.2% from a year ago, with $13M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $7.7M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $455,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $531,000 |
| Q4 2024 | — |
MFIN spent $13M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
MFIN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
MFIN's net debt is about 3.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.7 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MFIN.
MFIN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.1 | Oversold |
MFIN's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
MFIN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MFIN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.4x | 13x | 35% below |
| PE % | 85 | 63 | 22 pts above |
MFIN is trading at 8.4x earnings, a 35% discount to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MFIN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $11.0 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.2 | 8.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.84 | 5.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $9.02 | 3.5% above |
MFIN has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 3.5% above its 200-week average.
MFIN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.15 | $5.20 | -27% |
| 2021 | $5.20 | $8.45 | +62% |
| 2022 | $8.45 | $6.91 | -18% |
| 2023 | $6.91 | $9.85 | +43% |
| 2024 | $9.85 | $9.37 | -4.9% |
| 2025 | $9.37 | $10.6 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $10.6 | $9.34 | -12% |
MFIN has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 12% so far in 2026.