MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
MEDP has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MEDP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MEDP's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
MEDP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $493 | -25% |
| Fair | 34x | $611 | -7% |
| Forward | 34x | $657 | — |
| Current | 36x | $657 | — |
| Expensive | 42x | $748 | +14% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MEDP's PE is in its fair range at 36x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 34x next year's earnings.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over MEDP in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MEDP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
MEDP has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MEDP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $19.28 | +7% |
| Q3 2026 | $18.02 | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.04 | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.89 | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.28 | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.30 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.45 | +27% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.10 | +34% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.63 | +42% |
MEDP has the edge over NVO on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.89 over the past year, up 4.9% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2020.
MEDP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $716M | +8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $707.3M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $706.6M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $708.5M | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $659.9M | +24% |
| Q2 2025 | $603.3M | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $558.6M | +9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $536.6M | +7.7% |
MEDP's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $716M last quarter, up 8.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +1.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | -1.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | +1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 23% | +5.9 points |
MEDP's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 1.6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over MEDP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MEDP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $196.4M | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $138.1M | -3% |
| Q1 2026 | $145M | +25% |
| Q4 2025 | $188.1M | +2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $235.5M | +70% |
| Q2 2025 | $142.4M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $115.8M | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $183M | +25% |
MEDP's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $668M over the past year, down 1.4% from the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
MEDP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -182K shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -445K shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -3.4M shares |
| 5 years | -24% | -9.1M shares |
| Available history | -24% | -9.2M shares |
MEDP has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $294.8M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $540.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $371.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $169.9M |
MEDP spent $295M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 73% from the year before.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
MEDP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
MEDP has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
MEDP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.8 | Neutral |
MEDP's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
MEDP PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MEDP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 26x | 41% above |
| PE % | 65 | 29 | 36 pts above |
MEDP is trading at 36x earnings, a 41% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over MEDP on valuation relative to its sector.
MEDP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $635.0 | 3.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $603.7 | 8.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $538.6 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $466.3 | 41% above |
| 200 week MA | $384.2 | 71% above |
MEDP has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
MEDP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $83.7 | $139.1 | +66% |
| 2021 | $139.1 | $223.4 | +61% |
| 2022 | $223.4 | $212.7 | -4.8% |
| 2023 | $212.7 | $306.5 | +44% |
| 2024 | $306.5 | $341.1 | +11% |
| 2025 | $341.1 | $567.6 | +66% |
| 2026 YTD | $567.6 | $656.8 | +16% |
MEDP has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.