MDGL
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
MDGL has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MDGL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
MDGL's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
MDGL PE Valuation
MDGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 87x next year's earnings.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
MDGL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
MDGL has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MDGL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.89 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$5.96 | +$6.84 |
| Q2 2026 | -$12.87 | -$0.23 |
| Q1 2026 | -$12.78 | +$5.06 |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.85 | +$9.05 |
| Q3 2025 | -$12.80 | +$12.28 |
| Q2 2025 | -$12.64 | +$12.86 |
| Q1 2025 | -$17.84 | +$5.25 |
| Q4 2024 | -$21.90 | -$1.96 |
MDGL is still losing money, but far less than before: $5.96 per share over the past year, against $25.50 at its worst in mid-2024.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over MDGL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
MDGL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $431.3M | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $364.3M | +71% |
| Q1 2026 | $311.3M | +127% |
| Q4 2025 | $321.1M | +211% |
| Q3 2025 | $287.3M | +362% |
| Q2 2025 | $212.8M | +1354% |
MDGL has the edge over NVO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +53 points |
| Q2 2026 | -15% | +6.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -30% | +28 points |
| Q4 2025 | -19% | +46 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | +147 points |
| Q2 2025 | -22% | +1088 points |
| Q1 2025 | -58% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | -65% | N/A |
MDGL's operating margin was 13% last quarter, up 53 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2024.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over MDGL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MDGL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $116.6M | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.1M | +$66.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$171.3M | -$82.4M |
| Q4 2025 | -$133.1M | -$28.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $79M | +$146.8M |
| Q2 2025 | -$47.1M | +$88M |
| Q1 2025 | -$88.9M | +$60.6M |
| Q4 2024 | -$104.7M | -$23.7M |
MDGL has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$169M over the past year, against −$162M the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over MDGL on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MDGL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +4% | +1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +35% | +7.8M shares |
| 3 years | +64% | +11.8M shares |
| 5 years | +82% | +13.7M shares |
| Available history | +96% | +14.9M shares |
MDGL has 30M diluted shares, up 35% from a year ago.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over MDGL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
MDGL Net Leverage
MDGL's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
MDGL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.0 | Neutral |
MDGL's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
MDGL PE vs Healthcare Sector
MDGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
MDGL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $453.4 | 6.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $496.6 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $503.0 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $431.1 | 1.4% below |
| 200 week MA | $334.7 | 27% above |
MDGL has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 27% above its 200-week average.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
MDGL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.2 | $120.1 | +29% |
| 2021 | $120.1 | $87.3 | -27% |
| 2022 | $87.3 | $273.6 | +213% |
| 2023 | $273.6 | $231.4 | -15% |
| 2024 | $231.4 | $313.1 | +35% |
| 2025 | $313.1 | $598.9 | +91% |
| 2026 YTD | $598.9 | $425.2 | -29% |
MDGL has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 29% so far in 2026.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has the edge over MDGL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.