MDGL

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

56
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential21/ 100

MDGL lost money over the past year, so it has no meaningful PE right now. Analysts expect earnings to recover and profitability to improve, though they disagree widely on how much.

MDGL Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

MDGL's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

MDGL PE Valuation

MDGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 87x next year's earnings.

MDGL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect MDGL to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

MDGL Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$548.30
Downside-21%$336.45

Calculated from the latest close: $425.21 on Nov 12.

MDGL's one-year upside scenario is somewhat larger than its downside: +29% against −21%.

MDGL Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-19.94Q1 2024: $-23.09Q2 2024: $-25.50Q3 2024: $-25.08Q4 2024: $-21.90Q1 2025: $-17.84Q2 2025: $-12.64Q3 2025: $-12.80Q4 2025: $-12.85Q1 2026: $-12.78Q2 2026: $-12.87Q3 2026: $-5.96Forward: $4.89
Q4 2023: $-19.94Q1 2024: $-23.09Q2 2024: $-25.50Q3 2024: $-25.08Q4 2024: $-21.90Q1 2025: $-17.84Q2 2025: $-12.64Q3 2025: $-12.80Q4 2025: $-12.85Q1 2026: $-12.78Q2 2026: $-12.87Q3 2026: $-5.96Forward: $4.89
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$4.89—
Q3 2026-$5.96+$6.84
Q2 2026-$12.87-$0.23
Q1 2026-$12.78+$5.06
Q4 2025-$12.85+$9.05
Q3 2025-$12.80+$12.28
Q2 2025-$12.64+$12.86
Q1 2025-$17.84+$5.25
Q4 2024-$21.90-$1.96

MDGL is still losing money, but far less than before: $5.96 per share over the past year, against $25.50 at its worst in mid-2024.

MDGL Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $0Q1 2024: $0Q2 2024: $15MQ3 2024: $62MQ4 2024: $103MQ1 2025: $137MQ2 2025: $213MQ3 2025: $287MQ4 2025: $321MQ1 2026: $311MQ2 2026: $364MQ3 2026: $431M
Q4 2023: $0Q1 2024: $0Q2 2024: $15MQ3 2024: $62MQ4 2024: $103MQ1 2025: $137MQ2 2025: $213MQ3 2025: $287MQ4 2025: $321MQ1 2026: $311MQ2 2026: $364MQ3 2026: $431M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$431.3M+50%
Q2 2026$364.3M+71%
Q1 2026$311.3M+127%
Q4 2025$321.1M+211%
Q3 2025$287.3M+362%
Q2 2025$212.8M+1354%

MDGL's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $431M last quarter, up 50% from the same quarter a year ago.

MDGL Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$81MQ1 2024: −$150MQ2 2024: −$135MQ3 2024: −$68MQ4 2024: −$105MQ1 2025: −$89MQ2 2025: −$47MQ3 2025: $79MQ4 2025: −$133MQ1 2026: −$171MQ2 2026: $19MQ3 2026: $117M
Q4 2023: −$81MQ1 2024: −$150MQ2 2024: −$135MQ3 2024: −$68MQ4 2024: −$105MQ1 2025: −$89MQ2 2025: −$47MQ3 2025: $79MQ4 2025: −$133MQ1 2026: −$171MQ2 2026: $19MQ3 2026: $117M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$116.6M+48%
Q2 2026$19.1M+$66.1M
Q1 2026-$171.3M-$82.4M
Q4 2025-$133.1M-$28.4M
Q3 2025$79M+$146.8M
Q2 2025-$47.1M+$88M
Q1 2025-$88.9M+$60.6M
Q4 2024-$104.7M-$23.7M

MDGL has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$169M over the past year, against −$162M the year before.

MDGL Total Shares

Q4 2023: 20MQ1 2024: 20MQ2 2024: 21MQ3 2024: 22MQ4 2024: 21MQ1 2025: 22MQ2 2025: 22MQ3 2025: 22MQ4 2025: 22MQ1 2026: 29MQ2 2026: 29MQ3 2026: 30M
Q4 2023: 20MQ1 2024: 20MQ2 2024: 21MQ3 2024: 22MQ4 2024: 21MQ1 2025: 22MQ2 2025: 22MQ3 2025: 22MQ4 2025: 22MQ1 2026: 29MQ2 2026: 29MQ3 2026: 30M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+4%+1.2M shares
1 year+35%+7.8M shares
3 years+64%+11.8M shares
5 years+82%+13.7M shares
Available history+96%+14.9M shares

MDGL has 30M diluted shares, up 35% from a year ago.

MDGL Net Leverage

MDGL's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

MDGL Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI37.5Neutral
Stochastic21.0Neutral

MDGL's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).

MDGL PE vs Healthcare Sector

MDGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MDGL Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$453.46.2% below
20 week MA$496.614% below
50 week MA$503.015% below
100 week MA$431.11.4% below
200 week MA$334.727% above

MDGL has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 27% above its 200-week average.

MDGL Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$93.2$120.1+29%
2021$120.1$87.3-27%
2022$87.3$273.6+213%
2023$273.6$231.4-15%
2024$231.4$313.1+35%
2025$313.1$598.9+91%
2026 YTD$598.9$425.2-29%

MDGL has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 29% so far in 2026.

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