MCD
McDonald's Corporation
MCD has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has the edge over MCD overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MCD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
MCD's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
MCD PE Valuation
MCD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE's PE is in its cheap range at 18x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 30x, in its fair range.
MCD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
MCD has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MCD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.34 | +17% |
| Q3 2024 | $11.38 | +0.4% |
| Q2 2024 | $11.42 | +5.3% |
| Q1 2024 | $11.77 | +27% |
| Q4 2023 | $11.56 | +39% |
| Q3 2023 | $11.34 | +43% |
| Q2 2023 | $10.85 | +34% |
| Q1 2023 | $9.30 | -1.8% |
| Q4 2022 | $8.33 | -17% |
NKE has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 0.4% for MCD versus NKE up 7.2%.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
MCD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.2B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.1B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.5B | +9.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $7B | +9.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.1B | +3% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.8B | +5.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $6B | -3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.4B | -0.3% |
MCD has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 47% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 45% | +0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 47% | +1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 47% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 44% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.2 points |
MCD has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MCD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.1B | -11% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | +58% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.7B | -7.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.4B | +24% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.8B | +5.3% |
MCD has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
MCD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -2.7M shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -7.9M shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -18.4M shares |
MCD has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $519M |
| Q2 2026 | $856M |
| Q1 2026 | $396M |
| Q4 2025 | $573M |
| Q3 2025 | $501M |
| Q2 2025 | $505M |
| Q1 2025 | $477M |
| Q4 2024 | $503M |
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
MCD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1x | Elevated |
MCD's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.1 years a year ago.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over MCD on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MCD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 76.5 | Neutral |
MCD's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 77 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
MCD PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MCD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
MCD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
MCD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $250.4 | 9.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $260.1 | 5.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $286.6 | 4.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $295.0 | 7.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $287.9 | 5% below |
MCD has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
MCD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $198.2 | $211.4 | +6.7% |
| 2021 | $211.4 | $266.0 | +26% |
| 2022 | $266.0 | $267.6 | +0.6% |
| 2023 | $267.6 | $296.5 | +11% |
| 2024 | $296.5 | $293.6 | -1% |
| 2025 | $293.6 | $310.7 | +5.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $310.7 | $273.6 | -12% |
MCD has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.