MBIN
Merchants Bancorp
MBIN offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over MBIN overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
MBIN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MBIN's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MBIN.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MBIN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.6x | $33.76 | -37% |
| Fair | 6.3x | $38.13 | -29% |
| Expensive | 8.1x | $49.06 | -8.4% |
| Current | 8.8x | $53.56 | — |
| Forward | 9.1x | $53.56 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MBIN has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
MBIN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MBIN, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over MBIN on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
MBIN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.86 | -3.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.07 | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.98 | +9.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.10 | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.78 | -40% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.34 | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.54 | -31% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.43 | -15% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.30 | +12% |
MBIN earned $6.07 per share over the past year, up 40% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over MBIN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MBIN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $224.9M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $182.2M | +1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $175.2M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $185.3M | -4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $171.1M | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $179.2M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $145.9M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $193.8M | +22% |
MBIN's revenue is growing: $225M last quarter, up 31% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 59% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | 55% | +28 points |
| Q1 2026 | 48% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -26 points |
| Q3 2025 | 38% | -17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 27% | -35 points |
| Q1 2025 | 52% | -16 points |
| Q4 2024 | 66% | +3.4 points |
MBIN has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over MBIN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MBIN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $616.9M | +2472% |
| Q2 2026 | $210.9M | +$336.5M |
| Q1 2026 | -$598.5M | -524% |
| Q4 2025 | -$401.7M | -$385.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $24M | +$521.2M |
| Q2 2025 | -$125.7M | -374% |
| Q1 2025 | $141.2M | +$527.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$16.3M | -102% |
MBIN's free cash flow was −$172M over the past year, against $23M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MBIN.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MBIN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +27K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +82.8K shares |
| 3 years | +6.2% | +2.7M shares |
| 5 years | +6.3% | +2.7M shares |
| Available history | +6.8% | +2.9M shares |
MBIN has 46M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $3M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | $333 |
| Q2 2022 | $3.9M |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over MBIN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
MBIN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
MBIN has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MBIN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.3 | Neutral |
MBIN's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MBIN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MBIN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.8x | 13x | 32% below |
| PE % | 86 | 63 | 23 pts above |
MBIN has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MBIN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $50.8 | 5.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $51.5 | 3.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $46.2 | 16% above |
| 100 week MA | $40.3 | 33% above |
| 200 week MA | $37.9 | 41% above |
MBIN has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
MBIN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.0 | $18.6 | +43% |
| 2021 | $18.6 | $31.5 | +70% |
| 2022 | $31.5 | $24.5 | -22% |
| 2023 | $24.5 | $42.6 | +74% |
| 2024 | $42.6 | $36.3 | -15% |
| 2025 | $36.3 | $33.7 | -7.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $33.7 | $53.6 | +59% |
MBIN has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.