MAX

MediaAlpha, Inc.

66
Fundamentals72/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

MAX's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.

79
Fundamentals79/ 100
Valuation91/ 100
Upside potential86/ 100
Risk potential9/ 100

NFLX has the edge over MAX overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.

MAX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Healthy
Under pressure
Healthy

MAX's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is under pressure.

NFLX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Strong

NFLX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

MAX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE20x39x59x78x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE20x39x59x78x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap8.1x$14.77-0.3%
Current8.1x$14.81—
Forward13x$14.81—
Fair26x$46.73+216%
Expensive64x$116+685%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MAX's PE is 8.1x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.

NFLX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE29x59x88x117x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE29x59x88x117x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward17x$62.69—
Current18x$62.69—
Cheap27x$94.95+51%
Fair47x$161+157%
Expensive81x$281+348%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

NFLX has the edge over MAX in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

MAX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly deteriorating
Growth
Growth
Stable
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MAX, with profitability holding steady.

NFLX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Stable
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Moderate
Moderate

NFLX has the edge over MAX on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.

MAX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+52%$22.46
Downside-34%$9.83

Calculated from the latest close: $14.81 on Nov 12.

MAX trails NFLX on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

NFLX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+57%$98.20
Downside-9%$56.77

Calculated from the latest close: $62.69 on Nov 12.

NFLX has a better modeled risk to reward balance than MAX, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

MAX Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-0.89Q1 2024: $-0.68Q2 2024: $-0.29Q3 2024: $0.17Q4 2024: $0.31Q1 2025: $0.29Q2 2025: $-0.11Q3 2025: $-0.02Q4 2025: $0.39Q1 2026: $0.64Q2 2026: $1.62Q3 2026: $1.82Forward: $1.17
Q4 2023: $-0.89Q1 2024: $-0.68Q2 2024: $-0.29Q3 2024: $0.17Q4 2024: $0.31Q1 2025: $0.29Q2 2025: $-0.11Q3 2025: $-0.02Q4 2025: $0.39Q1 2026: $0.64Q2 2026: $1.62Q3 2026: $1.82Forward: $1.17
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.17-36%
Q3 2026$1.82+$1.84
Q2 2026$1.62+$1.73
Q1 2026$0.64+121%
Q4 2025$0.39+26%
Q3 2025-$0.02-112%
Q2 2025-$0.11+$0.18
Q1 2025$0.29+$0.97
Q4 2024$0.31+$1.20

MAX has returned to profit: it earned $1.82 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.

NFLX Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.20Q1 2024: $1.44Q2 2024: $1.60Q3 2024: $1.77Q4 2024: $1.98Q1 2025: $2.12Q2 2025: $2.35Q3 2025: $2.39Q4 2025: $2.53Q1 2026: $3.10Q2 2026: $3.18Q3 2026: $3.46Forward: $3.58
Q4 2023: $1.20Q1 2024: $1.44Q2 2024: $1.60Q3 2024: $1.77Q4 2024: $1.98Q1 2025: $2.12Q2 2025: $2.35Q3 2025: $2.39Q4 2025: $2.53Q1 2026: $3.10Q2 2026: $3.18Q3 2026: $3.46Forward: $3.58
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$3.58+3.5%
Q3 2026$3.46+45%
Q2 2026$3.18+35%
Q1 2026$3.10+46%
Q4 2025$2.53+28%
Q3 2025$2.39+35%
Q2 2025$2.35+47%
Q1 2025$2.12+47%
Q4 2024$1.98+65%

NFLX has the edge over MAX on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

MAX Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $117MQ1 2024: $127MQ2 2024: $178MQ3 2024: $259MQ4 2024: $301MQ1 2025: $264MQ2 2025: $252MQ3 2025: $307MQ4 2025: $291MQ1 2026: $310MQ2 2026: $317MQ3 2026: $376M
Q4 2023: $117MQ1 2024: $127MQ2 2024: $178MQ3 2024: $259MQ4 2024: $301MQ1 2025: $264MQ2 2025: $252MQ3 2025: $307MQ4 2025: $291MQ1 2026: $310MQ2 2026: $317MQ3 2026: $376M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$375.9M+23%
Q2 2026$316.9M+26%
Q1 2026$310M+17%
Q4 2025$291.2M-3.2%
Q3 2025$306.5M+18%
Q2 2025$251.6M+41%
Q1 2025$264.3M+109%
Q4 2024$300.6M+157%

MAX's revenue is growing: $376M last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.

NFLX Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $8.8BQ1 2024: $9.4BQ2 2024: $9.6BQ3 2024: $9.8BQ4 2024: $10.2BQ1 2025: $10.5BQ2 2025: $11.1BQ3 2025: $11.5BQ4 2025: $12.1BQ1 2026: $12.2BQ2 2026: $12.6BQ3 2026: $12.9B
Q4 2023: $8.8BQ1 2024: $9.4BQ2 2024: $9.6BQ3 2024: $9.8BQ4 2024: $10.2BQ1 2025: $10.5BQ2 2025: $11.1BQ3 2025: $11.5BQ4 2025: $12.1BQ1 2026: $12.2BQ2 2026: $12.6BQ3 2026: $12.9B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$12.9B+12%
Q2 2026$12.6B+13%
Q1 2026$12.2B+16%
Q4 2025$12.1B+18%
Q3 2025$11.5B+17%
Q2 2025$11.1B+16%
Q1 2025$10.5B+13%
Q4 2024$10.2B+16%

NFLX's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $12.9B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.

MAX Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $5MQ1 2024: $2MQ2 2024: $21MQ3 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $14MQ1 2025: $24MQ2 2025: $26MQ3 2025: $24MQ4 2025: −$7MQ1 2026: −$2MQ2 2026: $42MQ3 2026: $21M
Q4 2023: $5MQ1 2024: $2MQ2 2024: $21MQ3 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $14MQ1 2025: $24MQ2 2025: $26MQ3 2025: $24MQ4 2025: −$7MQ1 2026: −$2MQ2 2026: $42MQ3 2026: $21M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$21.5M-8.8%
Q2 2026$41.8M+64%
Q1 2026-$1.6M-107%
Q4 2025-$7.5M-152%
Q3 2025$23.6M+194%
Q2 2025$25.5M+19%
Q1 2025$23.6M+1338%
Q4 2024$14.5M+174%

MAX still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $54M over the past year.

NFLX Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $1.6BQ1 2024: $2.1BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $2.2BQ4 2024: $1.4BQ1 2025: $2.7BQ2 2025: $2.3BQ3 2025: $2.7BQ4 2025: $1.9BQ1 2026: $5.1BQ2 2026: $1.5BQ3 2026: $2.9B
Q4 2023: $1.6BQ1 2024: $2.1BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $2.2BQ4 2024: $1.4BQ1 2025: $2.7BQ2 2025: $2.3BQ3 2025: $2.7BQ4 2025: $1.9BQ1 2026: $5.1BQ2 2026: $1.5BQ3 2026: $2.9B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$2.9B+8.4%
Q2 2026$1.5B-33%
Q1 2026$5.1B+91%
Q4 2025$1.9B+36%
Q3 2025$2.7B+21%
Q2 2025$2.3B+87%
Q1 2025$2.7B+25%
Q4 2024$1.4B-13%

NFLX generated $11.4B in free cash flow over the past year, up 27% from the year before.

MAX Total Shares

Q4 2023: 46MQ1 2024: 49MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 55MQ4 2024: 53MQ1 2025: 56MQ2 2025: 56MQ3 2025: 57MQ4 2025: 67MQ1 2026: 56MQ2 2026: 62MQ3 2026: 63M
Q4 2023: 46MQ1 2024: 49MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 55MQ4 2024: 53MQ1 2025: 56MQ2 2025: 56MQ3 2025: 57MQ4 2025: 67MQ1 2026: 56MQ2 2026: 62MQ3 2026: 63M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1.2%+759K shares
1 year+11%+6.2M shares
3 years+36%+16.6M shares
5 years+2.7%+1.6M shares

MAX has 63M diluted shares, up 11% from a year ago, despite $64M in buybacks over the past year.

NFLX Total Shares

Q4 2023: 4.5BQ1 2024: 4.4BQ2 2024: 4.4BQ3 2024: 4.4BQ4 2024: 4.4BQ1 2025: 4.4BQ2 2025: 4.3BQ3 2025: 4.3BQ4 2025: 4.3BQ1 2026: 4.3BQ2 2026: 4.3BQ3 2026: 4.2B
Q4 2023: 4.5BQ1 2024: 4.4BQ2 2024: 4.4BQ3 2024: 4.4BQ4 2024: 4.4BQ1 2025: 4.4BQ2 2025: 4.3BQ3 2025: 4.3BQ4 2025: 4.3BQ1 2026: 4.3BQ2 2026: 4.3BQ3 2026: 4.2B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1.6%-66.2M shares
1 year-3.3%-145M shares
3 years-6.8%-305M shares
5 years-7.8%-354M shares
Available history-7.1%-323M shares

NFLX has the edge over MAX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

MAX Net Leverage

Q2 2024: 92.7xQ3 2024: 4.2xQ4 2024: 2.4xQ1 2025: 2.1xQ2 2025: 3.8xQ3 2025: 5.2xQ4 2025: 4.2xQ1 2026: 3.0xQ2 2026: 1.8xQ3 2026: 1.6x
Q2 2024: 92.7xQ3 2024: 4.2xQ4 2024: 2.4xQ1 2025: 2.1xQ2 2025: 3.8xQ3 2025: 5.2xQ4 2025: 4.2xQ1 2026: 3.0xQ2 2026: 1.8xQ3 2026: 1.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.6xHealthy
Q2 20261.8xHealthy
Q1 20263.0xModerate
Q4 20254.2xHigh
Q3 20255.2xHigh
Q2 20253.8xElevated
Q1 20252.1xModerate
Q4 20242.4xModerate

MAX's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.2 years a year ago.

NFLX Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 0.9xQ2 2024: 0.8xQ3 2024: 0.9xQ4 2024: 0.7xQ1 2025: 0.7xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.4xQ3 2026: 0.4x
Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 0.9xQ2 2024: 0.8xQ3 2024: 0.9xQ4 2024: 0.7xQ1 2025: 0.7xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.4xQ3 2026: 0.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.4xVery low
Q2 20260.4xVery low
Q1 20260.2xVery low
Q4 20250.4xVery low
Q3 20250.4xVery low
Q2 20250.5xVery low
Q1 20250.7xVery low
Q4 20240.7xVery low

NFLX has the edge over MAX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

MAX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI64.2Neutral
Stochastic85.1Overbought

MAX's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).

NFLX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI33.2Neutral
Stochastic6.0Oversold

NFLX's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 6 (oversold).

MAX PE vs Communication Services Sector

MetricMAXSector medianRelative
PE8.1x16x51% below
PE %18279 pts below

MAX has the edge over NFLX on valuation relative to its sector.

NFLX PE vs Communication Services Sector

MetricNFLXSector medianRelative
PE18x16x9.8% above
PE %42622 pts below

NFLX is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Communication Services sector's median of 16x.

MAX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$12.023% above
20 week MA$12.519% above
50 week MA$11.034% above
100 week MA$10.936% above
200 week MA$12.122% above

MAX has the edge over NFLX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

NFLX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$66.65.9% below
20 week MA$71.813% below
50 week MA$82.424% below
100 week MA$96.035% below
200 week MA$74.416% below

NFLX is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 16% below its 200-week average.

MAX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$33.8$45.0+33%
2021$45.0$15.4-66%
2022$15.4$9.97-35%
2023$9.97$11.2+12%
2024$11.2$11.1-0.1%
2025$11.1$12.7+14%
2026 YTD$12.7$14.8+17%

MAX has the edge over NFLX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

NFLX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$32.9$51.4+56%
2021$51.4$61.4+19%
2022$61.4$29.5-52%
2023$29.5$48.7+65%
2024$48.7$90.8+86%
2025$90.8$94.5+4.1%
2026 YTD$94.5$62.7-34%

NFLX is down 34% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.

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