MAX

MediaAlpha, Inc.

66
Fundamentals72/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

MAX's fundamentals are strong: its operating margin rose 6 points to 7.2% and revenue grew 15%, though free cash flow fell 38%. Its PE isn't a useful guide right now because of how its recent earnings were reported.

MAX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Healthy
Under pressure
Healthy

MAX's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is under pressure.

MAX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE20x39x59x78x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE20x39x59x78x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap8.1x$14.77-0.3%
Current8.1x$14.81—
Forward13x$14.81—
Fair26x$46.73+216%
Expensive64x$116+685%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MAX's PE is 8.1x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.

MAX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly deteriorating
Growth
Growth
Stable
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MAX, with profitability holding steady.

MAX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+52%$22.46
Downside-34%$9.83

Calculated from the latest close: $14.81 on Nov 12.

MAX's one-year upside scenario is somewhat larger than its downside: +52% against −34%.

MAX Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-0.89Q1 2024: $-0.68Q2 2024: $-0.29Q3 2024: $0.17Q4 2024: $0.31Q1 2025: $0.29Q2 2025: $-0.11Q3 2025: $-0.02Q4 2025: $0.39Q1 2026: $0.64Q2 2026: $1.62Q3 2026: $1.82Forward: $1.17
Q4 2023: $-0.89Q1 2024: $-0.68Q2 2024: $-0.29Q3 2024: $0.17Q4 2024: $0.31Q1 2025: $0.29Q2 2025: $-0.11Q3 2025: $-0.02Q4 2025: $0.39Q1 2026: $0.64Q2 2026: $1.62Q3 2026: $1.82Forward: $1.17
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.17-36%
Q3 2026$1.82+$1.84
Q2 2026$1.62+$1.73
Q1 2026$0.64+121%
Q4 2025$0.39+26%
Q3 2025-$0.02-112%
Q2 2025-$0.11+$0.18
Q1 2025$0.29+$0.97
Q4 2024$0.31+$1.20

MAX has returned to profit: it earned $1.82 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.

MAX Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $117MQ1 2024: $127MQ2 2024: $178MQ3 2024: $259MQ4 2024: $301MQ1 2025: $264MQ2 2025: $252MQ3 2025: $307MQ4 2025: $291MQ1 2026: $310MQ2 2026: $317MQ3 2026: $376M
Q4 2023: $117MQ1 2024: $127MQ2 2024: $178MQ3 2024: $259MQ4 2024: $301MQ1 2025: $264MQ2 2025: $252MQ3 2025: $307MQ4 2025: $291MQ1 2026: $310MQ2 2026: $317MQ3 2026: $376M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$375.9M+23%
Q2 2026$316.9M+26%
Q1 2026$310M+17%
Q4 2025$291.2M-3.2%
Q3 2025$306.5M+18%
Q2 2025$251.6M+41%
Q1 2025$264.3M+109%
Q4 2024$300.6M+157%

MAX's revenue is growing: $376M last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.

MAX Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $5MQ1 2024: $2MQ2 2024: $21MQ3 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $14MQ1 2025: $24MQ2 2025: $26MQ3 2025: $24MQ4 2025: −$7MQ1 2026: −$2MQ2 2026: $42MQ3 2026: $21M
Q4 2023: $5MQ1 2024: $2MQ2 2024: $21MQ3 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $14MQ1 2025: $24MQ2 2025: $26MQ3 2025: $24MQ4 2025: −$7MQ1 2026: −$2MQ2 2026: $42MQ3 2026: $21M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$21.5M-8.8%
Q2 2026$41.8M+64%
Q1 2026-$1.6M-107%
Q4 2025-$7.5M-152%
Q3 2025$23.6M+194%
Q2 2025$25.5M+19%
Q1 2025$23.6M+1338%
Q4 2024$14.5M+174%

MAX still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $54M over the past year.

MAX Total Shares

Q4 2023: 46MQ1 2024: 49MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 55MQ4 2024: 53MQ1 2025: 56MQ2 2025: 56MQ3 2025: 57MQ4 2025: 67MQ1 2026: 56MQ2 2026: 62MQ3 2026: 63M
Q4 2023: 46MQ1 2024: 49MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 55MQ4 2024: 53MQ1 2025: 56MQ2 2025: 56MQ3 2025: 57MQ4 2025: 67MQ1 2026: 56MQ2 2026: 62MQ3 2026: 63M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1.2%+759K shares
1 year+11%+6.2M shares
3 years+36%+16.6M shares
5 years+2.7%+1.6M shares

MAX has 63M diluted shares, up 11% from a year ago, despite $64M in buybacks over the past year.

MAX Net Leverage

Q2 2024: 92.7xQ3 2024: 4.2xQ4 2024: 2.4xQ1 2025: 2.1xQ2 2025: 3.8xQ3 2025: 5.2xQ4 2025: 4.2xQ1 2026: 3.0xQ2 2026: 1.8xQ3 2026: 1.6x
Q2 2024: 92.7xQ3 2024: 4.2xQ4 2024: 2.4xQ1 2025: 2.1xQ2 2025: 3.8xQ3 2025: 5.2xQ4 2025: 4.2xQ1 2026: 3.0xQ2 2026: 1.8xQ3 2026: 1.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.6xHealthy
Q2 20261.8xHealthy
Q1 20263.0xModerate
Q4 20254.2xHigh
Q3 20255.2xHigh
Q2 20253.8xElevated
Q1 20252.1xModerate
Q4 20242.4xModerate

MAX's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.2 years a year ago.

MAX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI64.2Neutral
Stochastic85.1Overbought

MAX's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).

MAX PE vs Communication Services Sector

MetricMAXSector medianRelative
PE8.1x16x51% below
PE %18279 pts below

MAX is trading at 8.1x earnings, a 51% discount to the Communication Services sector's median of 16x, though its earnings don't support one.

MAX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$12.023% above
20 week MA$12.519% above
50 week MA$11.034% above
100 week MA$10.936% above
200 week MA$12.122% above

MAX has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 22% above its 200-week average.

MAX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$33.8$45.0+33%
2021$45.0$15.4-66%
2022$15.4$9.97-35%
2023$9.97$11.2+12%
2024$11.2$11.1-0.1%
2025$11.1$12.7+14%
2026 YTD$12.7$14.8+17%

MAX has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 17% so far in 2026.

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