MAT
Mattel, Inc.
MAT has the edge over RIVN overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
MAT's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9.2x | $15.53 | — |
| Cheap | 9.4x | $15.95 | +2.7% |
| Forward | 12x | $15.53 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $21.78 | +40% |
| Expensive | 32x | $53.59 | +245% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MAT's PE is in its cheap range at 9.2x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 12x, in its fair range.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MAT's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
RIVN has the edge over MAT on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
MAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.34 | -21% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.69 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.34 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.56 | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.24 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.32 | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.53 | +68% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.54 | +88% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.58 | +163% |
MAT has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
MAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $862.2M | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | +7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | -5.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | -5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $826.6M | +2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | +1.6% |
MAT's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $1.8B last quarter, up 4.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 26% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1% | -6.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -12% | -5.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | -4.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.7% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | -6.4% | -2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.6% | +1 points |
MAT has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN has the edge over MAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
MAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.7M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | -$221.5M | +$101.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$67.8M | -1799% |
| Q4 2025 | $760.8M | -8.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $41.1M | -48% |
| Q2 2025 | -$323.3M | -$53.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $4M | -81% |
| Q4 2024 | $835.5M | -9.6% |
MAT has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
MAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -2.1M shares |
| 1 year | -9.8% | -31.3M shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -70.7M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -67.4M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -61.5M shares |
MAT has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $100M |
| Q1 2026 | $200M |
| Q4 2025 | $187.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $202.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $50M |
| Q1 2025 | $160M |
| Q4 2024 | $131.7M |
MAT spent $496M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 8.9% from the year before.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
MAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
MAT's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.3 | Neutral |
MAT's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
MAT PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.2x | 18x | 49% below |
| PE % | 14 | 47 | 33 pts below |
MAT is trading at 9.2x earnings, a 49% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.6 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $14.8 | 4.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $16.1 | 3.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.4 | 11% below |
| 200 week MA | $18.2 | 15% below |
MAT has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
MAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.8 | $17.5 | +27% |
| 2021 | $17.5 | $20.7 | +18% |
| 2022 | $20.7 | $16.9 | -18% |
| 2023 | $16.9 | $18.9 | +12% |
| 2024 | $18.9 | $18.0 | -4.9% |
| 2025 | $18.0 | $20.3 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.3 | $15.5 | -23% |
MAT has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.