MAT
Mattel, Inc.
MAT's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks cheap: trading at 9.2x earnings, below its usual 13x. Analysts expect earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
MAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
MAT's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
MAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9.2x | $15.53 | — |
| Cheap | 9.4x | $15.95 | +2.7% |
| Forward | 11x | $15.53 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $21.78 | +40% |
| Expensive | 32x | $53.59 | +245% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MAT's PE is in its cheap range at 9.2x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 11x.
MAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MAT's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.40 | -17% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.69 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.34 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.56 | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.24 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.32 | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.53 | +68% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.54 | +88% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.58 | +163% |
MAT's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.69 over the past year, against $3.12 in mid-2022.
MAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $862.2M | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | +7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | -5.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | -5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $826.6M | +2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | +1.6% |
MAT's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $1.8B last quarter, up 4.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 26% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1% | -6.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -12% | -5.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | -4.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.7% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | -6.4% | -2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.6% | +1 points |
MAT's operating margin was 26% last quarter, up 4.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.7M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | -$221.5M | +$101.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$67.8M | -1799% |
| Q4 2025 | $760.8M | -8.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $41.1M | -48% |
| Q2 2025 | -$323.3M | -$53.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $4M | -81% |
| Q4 2024 | $835.5M | -9.6% |
MAT still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2023 peak: $522M over the past year.
MAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -2.1M shares |
| 1 year | -9.8% | -31.3M shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -70.7M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -67.4M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -61.5M shares |
MAT has 287M diluted shares, down 9.8% from a year ago, with $496M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $100M |
| Q1 2026 | $200M |
| Q4 2025 | $187.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $202.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $50M |
| Q1 2025 | $160M |
| Q4 2024 | $131.7M |
MAT spent $496M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 8.9% from the year before.
MAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
MAT's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
MAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.3 | Neutral |
MAT's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
MAT PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.2x | 18x | 49% below |
| PE % | 14 | 47 | 33 pts below |
MAT is trading at 9.2x earnings, a 49% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
MAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.6 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $14.8 | 4.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $16.1 | 3.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.4 | 11% below |
| 200 week MA | $18.2 | 15% below |
MAT's trend is mixed: it's above one of its five weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
MAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.8 | $17.5 | +27% |
| 2021 | $17.5 | $20.7 | +18% |
| 2022 | $20.7 | $16.9 | -18% |
| 2023 | $16.9 | $18.9 | +12% |
| 2024 | $18.9 | $18.0 | -4.9% |
| 2025 | $18.0 | $20.3 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.3 | $15.5 | -23% |
MAT has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 23% so far in 2026.