MAIN
Main Street Capital Corporation
MAIN has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
SOFI has the edge over MAIN overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MAIN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MAIN's profitability is currently strong, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MAIN.
SOFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SOFI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SOFI.
MAIN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.3x | $44.46 | -21% |
| Fair | 12x | $56.85 | +1.1% |
| Current | 12x | $56.23 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $70.68 | +26% |
| Forward | 15x | $56.23 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MAIN's PE is in its fair range at 12x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 15x, in its expensive range.
SOFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $15.63 | — |
| Current | 28x | $15.63 | — |
| Cheap | 33x | $18.24 | +17% |
| Fair | 43x | $23.82 | +52% |
| Expensive | 53x | $29.74 | +90% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SOFI has the edge over MAIN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MAIN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MAIN's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
SOFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
SOFI has the edge over MAIN on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
MAIN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.76 | -21% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.78 | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.50 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.91 | -3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.99 | -2.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.00 | -3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.03 | -2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.05 | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.09 | -1.2% |
MAIN earned $4.78 per share over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
SOFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.82 | +47% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.56 | 0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49 | -2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.45 | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.56 | +367% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.50 | +$0.72 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.43 | +$0.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.39 | +$0.75 |
SOFI has the edge over MAIN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MAIN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $55.5M | -57% |
| Q1 2022 | $97.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2021 | $135.5M | +32% |
| Q3 2021 | $123.7M | +22% |
| Q2 2021 | $129.7M | +129% |
| Q4 2020 | $102.8M | +183% |
SOFI has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 57% for MAIN versus up 44% for SOFI.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 45% | -36 points |
| Q1 2022 | 72% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2021 | 77% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2021 | 78% | -1 points |
| Q2 2021 | 81% | +17 points |
| Q1 2021 | 72% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 78% | +37 points |
| Q3 2020 | 79% | N/A |
MAIN's operating margin was 45% last quarter, down 36 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
SOFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $961.6M | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $854.9M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $771.8M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $734.1M | +19% |
SOFI's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since mid-2022: $1.4B last quarter, up 44% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +7.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +9.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -0.2 points |
SOFI's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
MAIN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $71.5M | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $116.6M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | -$138.5M | -$118.1M |
| Q4 2025 | -$218.5M | -251% |
| Q3 2025 | $90.6M | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $102.5M | +$289M |
| Q1 2025 | -$20.4M | +$97.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $145M | -5.6% |
MAIN has the edge over SOFI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SOFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.1B | -$1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$4B | -$2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.4B | -$2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -$815.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.4B | -$149M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.5B | -$1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$31.1M | -104% |
| Q4 2024 | -$242.4M | +$39.9M |
SOFI's free cash flow was −$10.5B over the past year, against −$3.2B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
MAIN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +503K shares |
| 1 year | +4.6% | +4.1M shares |
| 3 years | +13% | +10.8M shares |
| 5 years | +36% | +24.7M shares |
| Available history | +47% | +30M shares |
MAIN has the edge over SOFI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | $256,000 |
| Q3 2021 | $575,000 |
| Q2 2021 | $4.5M |
| Q1 2021 | $7,000 |
| Q4 2020 | $124,000 |
| Q3 2020 | — |
SOFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +5.8M shares |
| 1 year | +5.2% | +66.8M shares |
| 3 years | +43% | +407M shares |
| 5 years | +272% | +993M shares |
SOFI has 1.4B diluted shares, up 5.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
MAIN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 6.1x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 4.8x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 4.8x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 4.1x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 4.9x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 71.9x | High |
| Q4 2019 | 8.0x | High |
MAIN's net debt is about 6.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.2 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MAIN.
SOFI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
SOFI has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
MAIN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.2 | Neutral |
MAIN's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 52 (neutral).
SOFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.5 | Neutral |
SOFI's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
MAIN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MAIN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 9.7% below |
| PE % | 46 | 63 | 17 pts below |
MAIN has the edge over SOFI on valuation relative to its sector.
SOFI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SOFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 13x | 114% above |
| PE % | 2 | 61 | 59 pts below |
SOFI is trading at 28x earnings, a 114% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MAIN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $55.0 | 2.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $55.6 | 1.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $56.1 | 0.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 2.7% below |
| 200 week MA | $51.3 | 9.7% above |
MAIN has the edge over SOFI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SOFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.7 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $17.0 | 7.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.5 | 16% above |
SOFI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 16% above its 200-week average.
MAIN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $43.4 | $31.1 | -28% |
| 2021 | $31.1 | $44.0 | +41% |
| 2022 | $44.0 | $36.8 | -16% |
| 2023 | $36.8 | $43.2 | +18% |
| 2024 | $43.2 | $57.9 | +34% |
| 2025 | $57.9 | $60.8 | +5% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.8 | $56.2 | -7.5% |
MAIN has the edge over SOFI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SOFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.4 | $12.4 | +19% |
| 2021 | $12.4 | $15.1 | +22% |
| 2022 | $15.1 | $4.61 | -69% |
| 2023 | $4.61 | $9.95 | +116% |
| 2024 | $9.95 | $16.0 | +61% |
| 2025 | $16.0 | $27.1 | +69% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.1 | $15.6 | -42% |
SOFI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +116% in 2023 to −69% in 2022. It's down 42% so far in 2026.