MAIN
Main Street Capital Corporation
MAIN trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over MAIN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
MAIN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MAIN's profitability is currently strong, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MAIN.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MAIN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.3x | $44.46 | -21% |
| Fair | 12x | $56.85 | +1.1% |
| Current | 12x | $56.23 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $70.68 | +26% |
| Forward | 15x | $56.23 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MAIN has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
MAIN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MAIN's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over MAIN on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
MAIN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.76 | -21% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.78 | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.50 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.91 | -3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.99 | -2.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.00 | -3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.03 | -2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.05 | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.09 | -1.2% |
MAIN earned $4.78 per share over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over MAIN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MAIN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $55.5M | -57% |
| Q1 2022 | $97.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2021 | $135.5M | +32% |
| Q3 2021 | $123.7M | +22% |
| Q2 2021 | $129.7M | +129% |
| Q4 2020 | $102.8M | +183% |
MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 57% for MAIN versus up 12% for MS.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 45% | -36 points |
| Q1 2022 | 72% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2021 | 77% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2021 | 78% | -1 points |
| Q2 2021 | 81% | +17 points |
| Q1 2021 | 72% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 78% | +37 points |
| Q3 2020 | 79% | N/A |
MAIN's operating margin was 45% last quarter, down 36 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MAIN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $71.5M | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $116.6M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | -$138.5M | -$118.1M |
| Q4 2025 | -$218.5M | -251% |
| Q3 2025 | $90.6M | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $102.5M | +$289M |
| Q1 2025 | -$20.4M | +$97.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $145M | -5.6% |
MAIN's free cash flow was −$169M over the past year, against $318M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MAIN.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MAIN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +503K shares |
| 1 year | +4.6% | +4.1M shares |
| 3 years | +13% | +10.8M shares |
| 5 years | +36% | +24.7M shares |
| Available history | +47% | +30M shares |
MAIN has 94M diluted shares, up 4.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | $256,000 |
| Q3 2021 | $575,000 |
| Q2 2021 | $4.5M |
| Q1 2021 | $7,000 |
| Q4 2020 | $124,000 |
| Q3 2020 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over MAIN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
MAIN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 6.1x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 4.8x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 4.8x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 4.1x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 4.9x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 71.9x | High |
| Q4 2019 | 8.0x | High |
MAIN's net debt is about 6.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.2 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MAIN.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MAIN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.2 | Neutral |
MAIN's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 52 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MAIN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MAIN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 9.7% below |
| PE % | 46 | 63 | 17 pts below |
MAIN has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MAIN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $55.0 | 2.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $55.6 | 1.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $56.1 | 0.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 2.7% below |
| 200 week MA | $51.3 | 9.7% above |
MAIN has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
MAIN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $43.4 | $31.1 | -28% |
| 2021 | $31.1 | $44.0 | +41% |
| 2022 | $44.0 | $36.8 | -16% |
| 2023 | $36.8 | $43.2 | +18% |
| 2024 | $43.2 | $57.9 | +34% |
| 2025 | $57.9 | $60.8 | +5% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.8 | $56.2 | -7.5% |
MAIN has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 7.5% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over MAIN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.