LNC
Lincoln National Corporation
LNC has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LNC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
LNC's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like LNC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
LNC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 2.5x | $41.80 | — |
| Cheap | 3.8x | $63.26 | +51% |
| Forward | 4.9x | $41.80 | — |
| Fair | 8.9x | $149 | +257% |
| Expensive | 15x | $256 | +512% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LNC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
LNC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect LNC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over LNC on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
LNC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.55 | -49% |
| Q3 2026 | $16.71 | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.06 | +109% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.14 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.83 | -68% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.17 | +660% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.76 | -40% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.07 | -4.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $18.41 | +$23.33 |
LNC earned $16.71 per share over the past year, up 50% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over LNC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
LNC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.5B | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.5B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.3B | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9B | -2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $4B | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.7B | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.1B | +624% |
LNC's revenue is growing: $5.5B last quarter, up 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | +20 points |
| Q2 2026 | 36% | +15 points |
| Q1 2026 | -4.6% | +16 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -23 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | +29 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | -20% | -57 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +272 points |
LNC's operating margin was 32% last quarter, up 20 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over LNC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over LNC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LNC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $875M | +$2B |
| Q2 2026 | -$558M | -155% |
| Q1 2026 | $138M | +$410M |
| Q4 2025 | $233M | +5% |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.1B | -$1.1B |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +$1.9B |
| Q1 2025 | -$272M | +$1.1B |
| Q4 2024 | $222M | +$2.1B |
LNC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
LNC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +235K shares |
| 1 year | +1.2% | +2.3M shares |
| 3 years | +15% | +25.8M shares |
| 5 years | +4% | +7.6M shares |
| Available history | -2.7% | -5.5M shares |
LNC has 197M diluted shares, up 1.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | $50M |
| Q2 2022 | $100M |
| Q1 2022 | $400M |
| Q4 2021 | $650M |
| Q3 2021 | $200M |
| Q2 2021 | $150M |
| Q1 2021 | $105M |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over LNC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
LNC Net Leverage
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
LNC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.7 | Neutral |
LNC's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 28 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
LNC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | LNC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 2.5x | 13x | 81% below |
| PE % | 5 | 63 | 58 pts below |
LNC has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
LNC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $40.6 | 3% above |
| 20 week MA | $42.0 | 0.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $39.8 | 5.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $38.0 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $33.0 | 27% above |
LNC has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
LNC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $58.7 | $49.7 | -15% |
| 2021 | $49.7 | $67.9 | +36% |
| 2022 | $67.9 | $30.1 | -56% |
| 2023 | $30.1 | $27.0 | -10% |
| 2024 | $27.0 | $31.8 | +18% |
| 2025 | $31.8 | $45.7 | +44% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.7 | $41.8 | -8.6% |
LNC has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 8.6% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over LNC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.