LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VCEL
Vericel Corporation
VCEL has a slight edge over LLY overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VCEL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
VCEL's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
VCEL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 67x | $57.42 | — |
| Current | 88x | $57.42 | — |
| Cheap | 106x | $68.69 | +20% |
| Fair | 277x | $180 | +214% |
| Expensive | 1,180x | $767 | +1236% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VCEL has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
VCEL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for VCEL, with profitability improving.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
VCEL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.86 | +32% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.65 | +150% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.48 | +243% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.43 | +760% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.32 | +60% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.26 | +225% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.14 | +600% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.05 | +400% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.20 | +$0.27 |
VCEL's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $0.65 over the past year, up 150% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over VCEL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over VCEL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
VCEL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $85.4M | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $77.5M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $68.4M | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $92.9M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $67.5M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $63.2M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $52.6M | +2.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $75.4M | +16% |
VCEL's revenue has grown year over year for 17 quarters in a row: $85M last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +9.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | -12% | +13 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.1% | +9.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | -3.2% | +8.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | -24% | -14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 25% | +4.9 points |
VCEL's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 9.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over VCEL on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
VCEL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15.7M | -19% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.3M | +17504% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.1M | +$22.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $12.8M | +52% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.5M | +$28.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $81K | -95% |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.6M | -$797K |
| Q4 2024 | $8.5M | +276% |
VCEL generated $58M in free cash flow over the past year, up 184% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over VCEL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
VCEL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.2% | +650K shares |
| 1 year | +2% | +1.1M shares |
| 3 years | +11% | +5.3M shares |
| 5 years | +13% | +6.3M shares |
| Available history | +20% | +8.8M shares |
VCEL has 53M diluted shares, up 2% from a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
VCEL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -4.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -8.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -18.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -7.4x | Net Cash |
VCEL has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
VCEL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 75.1 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 69.5 | Neutral |
VCEL's weekly RSI is 75 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 70 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY has the edge over VCEL on valuation relative to its sector.
VCEL PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | VCEL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 88x | 26x | 242% above |
| PE % | 10 | 29 | 19 pts below |
VCEL is trading at 88x earnings, a 242% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
VCEL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.4 | 29% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 31% above |
| 50 week MA | $39.0 | 47% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.0 | 40% above |
| 200 week MA | $40.5 | 42% above |
VCEL is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 42% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
VCEL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.5 | $29.0 | +66% |
| 2021 | $29.0 | $41.6 | +44% |
| 2022 | $41.6 | $23.8 | -43% |
| 2023 | $23.8 | $35.6 | +49% |
| 2024 | $35.6 | $57.3 | +61% |
| 2025 | $57.3 | $37.7 | -34% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.7 | $57.4 | +52% |
VCEL has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.