LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over TMCI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
TMCI
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.
TMCI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TMCI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
TMCI's revenue is currently stable, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
TMCI PE Valuation
TMCI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
TMCI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect TMCI's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over TMCI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
TMCI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.85 | -$0.05 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.92 | -$0.13 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.96 | -$0.11 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.93 | -$0.03 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.79 | +$0.23 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.85 | +$0.03 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.90 | -$0.09 |
TMCI is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $0.85 per share over the past year, against $1.02 at its worst in mid-2024.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over TMCI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over TMCI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TMCI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $48.3M | -3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $45.4M | -4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $47.2M | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $62.5M | -9% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.2M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $47.4M | +6.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $52.6M | +2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $68.7M | +10% |
TMCI's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $48M last quarter, down 3.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +7.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | -33% | +2.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -36% | -6.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | -9.5% | -9.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | -31% | +2.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | -36% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | -30% | +7.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3% | +11 points |
TMCI's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 7.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over TMCI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
TMCI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$5.4M | +$6.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.9M | +$918K |
| Q1 2026 | $4.2M | +538% |
| Q4 2025 | -$10.4M | -$3.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$11.9M | +$2.8M |
| Q2 2025 | -$7.8M | +$7.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $655K | +$11.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$7.3M | -$5.6M |
TMCI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$19M over the past year, against −$26M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over TMCI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
TMCI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +415K shares |
| 1 year | +3.1% | +1.9M shares |
| 3 years | +6.3% | +3.9M shares |
| 5 years | +24% | +12.7M shares |
| Available history | +49% | +21.6M shares |
TMCI has 65M diluted shares, up 3.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
TMCI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | 36.3x | High |
TMCI's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
TMCI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 64.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
TMCI's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
TMCI PE vs Healthcare Sector
TMCI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over TMCI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
TMCI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.35 | 23% above |
| 20 week MA | $4.41 | 21% above |
| 50 week MA | $3.22 | 66% above |
| 100 week MA | $5.03 | 6.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $9.47 | 44% below |
TMCI has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 44% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
TMCI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $25.5 | $17.3 | -32% |
| 2022 | $17.3 | $23.9 | +39% |
| 2023 | $23.9 | $12.8 | -47% |
| 2024 | $12.8 | $6.98 | -45% |
| 2025 | $6.98 | $2.42 | -65% |
| 2026 YTD | $2.42 | $5.34 | +121% |
TMCI has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.