LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over SERA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
SERA
Sera Prognostics, Inc.
SERA trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SERA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
SERA's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
SERA PE Valuation
SERA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
SERA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses steady | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect SERA's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over SERA on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
SERA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.66 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.66 | +$0.19 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.64 | +$0.30 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.67 | +$0.32 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.77 | +$0.22 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.85 | +$0.13 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.94 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.99 | +$0.17 |
SERA is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.66 per share over the past year, against $1.43 at its worst in late 2022.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over SERA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over SERA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SERA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42K | +163% |
| Q2 2026 | $30K | +76% |
| Q1 2026 | $14K | -63% |
| Q4 2025 | $10K | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $16K | -45% |
| Q2 2025 | $17K | -29% |
| Q4 2024 | $24K | -41% |
| Q3 2024 | $29K | -31% |
SERA's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $42,000 last quarter, up 163% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -21160% | +34966 points |
| Q2 2026 | -33347% | +21477 points |
| Q1 2026 | -66857% | -42515 points |
| Q4 2025 | -89540% | -50278 points |
| Q3 2025 | -56125% | -25566 points |
| Q2 2025 | -54824% | -16269 points |
| Q1 2025 | -24342% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | -39263% | -17682 points |
SERA's operating margin was −21160% last quarter, up 34965 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over SERA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SERA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$7.4M | -$843K |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.3M | -$573K |
| Q1 2026 | -$8.8M | -$1.2M |
| Q4 2025 | -$6.5M | -$182K |
| Q3 2025 | -$6.6M | +$432K |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.8M | +$181K |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.6M | -252% |
| Q4 2024 | -$6.3M | +$513K |
SERA has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$29M over the past year, against −$26M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over SERA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
SERA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +313K shares |
| 1 year | +2.6% | +1.3M shares |
| 3 years | +62% | +19.5M shares |
| 5 years | +66% | +20.3M shares |
| Available history | +180% | +32.7M shares |
SERA has 51M diluted shares, up 2.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
SERA Net Leverage
SERA's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
SERA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.3 | Neutral |
SERA's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
SERA PE vs Healthcare Sector
SERA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over SERA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SERA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.06 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.05 | 3.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $2.29 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $2.97 | 33% below |
| 200 week MA | $4.19 | 53% below |
SERA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 53% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over SERA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SERA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $11.0 | $8.00 | -27% |
| 2022 | $8.00 | $1.60 | -80% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | $5.98 | +274% |
| 2024 | $5.98 | $8.00 | +34% |
| 2025 | $8.00 | $3.52 | -56% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.52 | $1.98 | -44% |
SERA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +274% in 2023 to −80% in 2022. It's down 44% so far in 2026.