LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over PEN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
PEN
Penumbra, Inc.
PEN has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PEN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
PEN's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
PEN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 55x | $321 | — |
| Cheap | 76x | $300 | -6.4% |
| Current | 81x | $321 | — |
| Fair | 222x | $883 | +175% |
| Expensive | 648x | $2,574 | +702% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PEN has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
PEN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PEN, with profitability improving.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
PEN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.82 | +47% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.97 | -5.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.07 | +7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.34 | +302% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.52 | +1156% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.20 | +388% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.78 | +1012% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.08 | -54% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.36 | -84% |
PEN earned $3.97 per share over the past year, down 5.5% from the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over PEN on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over PEN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PEN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $410.1M | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $390M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $374.8M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $385.4M | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $354.7M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $339.5M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $324.1M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $315.5M | +11% |
PEN's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $410M last quarter, up 16% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | -2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +39 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +8.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | +1.3 points |
PEN's operating margin was 12% last quarter, down 1.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
PEN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $26.4M | -37% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.5M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $73.3M | +106% |
| Q4 2025 | $68.1M | +49% |
| Q3 2025 | $42M | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $29.4M | +62% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5M | +9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $45.7M | +40% |
PEN generated $200M in free cash flow over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over PEN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
PEN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +48.2K shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +318K shares |
| 3 years | +1% | +400K shares |
| 5 years | +5.3% | +2M shares |
| Available history | +9.1% | +3.3M shares |
PEN has 40M diluted shares, up 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $1,000 |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
PEN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -6.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -9.8x | Net Cash |
PEN has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
PEN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.1 | Neutral |
PEN's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY has the edge over PEN on valuation relative to its sector.
PEN PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | PEN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 81x | 26x | 213% above |
| PE % | 26 | 29 | 3 pts below |
PEN is trading at 81x earnings, a 213% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over PEN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PEN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $320.0 | 0.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $320.6 | 0.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $325.6 | 1.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $294.7 | 8.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $267.7 | 20% above |
PEN's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 20% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over PEN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PEN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $164.1 | $187.4 | +14% |
| 2021 | $187.4 | $275.6 | +47% |
| 2022 | $275.6 | $219.6 | -20% |
| 2023 | $219.6 | $251.5 | +15% |
| 2024 | $251.5 | $239.9 | -4.6% |
| 2025 | $239.9 | $317.0 | +32% |
| 2026 YTD | $317.0 | $320.8 | +1.2% |
PEN has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 1.2% so far in 2026.